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NCSU
NC State
WolfpackBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference8-4#57 (+1.10)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
56· COverall
Offense
46· CRating
48· CPer play
43· CConsistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
61· CRating
58· CPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.002
Defensive EPA/play
+0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.001
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.009
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.65
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.45
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.74
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#57
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#67
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#21
recruiting 36 spots higher
11 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense44th
Opp-adjusted defense60th
Offensive EPA/play48th
Defensive EPA/play59th
Offensive success rate52th
Explosiveness76th
Defensive havoc72th
Points per drive49th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Middle Tennessee2017OA -0.076 / -0.008similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3612Michigan State2022OA +0.034 / -0.048similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3613Marshall2017OA -0.030 / +0.016similar: run defense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3574Florida State2019OA -0.009 / +0.034similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3525Kennesaw State2025OA +0.044 / -0.084similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, pass defense343
2020 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs Wake Forest | 45-42 | W | -1.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Virginia Tech | 24-45 | L | +6.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Pittsburgh | 30-29 | W | +14.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Virginia | 38-21 | W | +7.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Duke | 31-20 | W | -4.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 8 | @ North Carolina | 21-48 | L | +15.0 | L | 60 | O |
| 10 | vs Miami | 41-44 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Florida State | 38-22 | W | -7.0 | W | 60 | P |
| 12 | vs Liberty | 15-14 | W | -5.0 | L | 65 | U |
| 13 | @ Syracuse | 36-29 | W | -14.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 14 | vs Georgia Tech | 23-13 | W | -6.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 18 | @ Kentucky | 21-23 | L | +2.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.029 | 56th | +0.020 | 54th |
| Red Zone | +0.042 | 59th | -0.215 | 90th |
| Third Down | +0.139 | 63th | +0.105 | 43th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.012 | 53th | +0.010 | 55th |
| First Half | +0.077 | 68th | +0.053 | 38th |
| Second Half | -0.022 | 38th | -0.012 | 59th |
| Early Downs | -0.055 | 31th | -0.043 | 70th |
| Passing Downs | +0.205 | 84th | +0.165 | 20th |
| Standard Downs | -0.063 | 26th | -0.060 | 76th |
| Goal to Go | +0.398 | 89th | -0.419 | 95th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.1%Rush 51.9%
Havoc/Game
16.1
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
17.3
Yards/Game
385.3
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
44.1%
3&Out%
17.7%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 12 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | NC State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 363 | 350 |
| Points / Game | 30.3 | 29.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 267 | 283 |
| Rushing | 90 | 115 |
| Passing | 146 | 132 |
| Penalty | 31 | 36 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 433 | 488 |
| Yards | 1,470 | 2,087 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 122.5 | 173.9 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 401 | 421 |
| Completions | 252 | 247 |
| Completion % | 62.8% | 58.7% |
| Yards | 3,154 | 2,893 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 141.18 | 127.32 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 834 | 909 |
| Yards | 4,624 | 4,980 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 385.3 | 415.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 21 |
| Yards | 130 | 219 |
| Average | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 27 |
| Yards | 526 | 619 |
| Average | 22.9 | 22.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 55 | 55 |
| Yards | 2,426 | 2,208 |
| Average | 44.1 | 40.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 15 |
| Yards | 65 | 164 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 15 |
| Lost | 4 | 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 96 | 96 |
| Yards | 891 | 879 |
| Yards / Game | 74.3 | 73.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:42 | 31:18 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 161 | 183 |
| Conversions | 71 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 44.1% | 36.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 30 |
| Conversions | 8 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 66.7% | 53.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 53 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 43 |
| Score % | 82.4% | 81.1% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 28 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 52.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 24 |
| Made | 12 | 21 |
| Pct | 70.6% | 87.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 37 |
| Made | 43 | 37 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.