Fourth Down Data
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KENN

Kennesaw State

OwlsBalanced
Conference USA10-4#67 (-0.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
59· CRating
61· CPer play
40· CConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
41· CPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.029
Defensive EPA/play
+0.010
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.019
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.66
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#67
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#79
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kennesaw State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
61th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
40th
Explosiveness
69th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah State2025OA +0.038 / -0.036similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3622Mississippi State2025OA +0.008 / -0.047similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3493Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive success rate3484Nevada2017OA +0.009 / -0.079similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, run defense3485Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, pass defense347

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Wake Forest9-10L----
2@ Indiana9-56L+35.5L52O
3vs Merrimack27-13W-17.5L44.5U
4vs Arkansas State28-21W+4.5W58U
5vs Middle Tennessee24-16W-7.0W53.5U
7vs Louisiana Tech35-7W----
9@ Florida International45-26W-11.0W52O
10vs UTEP33-20W----
11@ New Mexico State24-21W-21.5L54.5U
12@ Jacksonville State26-35L-3.0L56O
13vs Missouri State41-34W-3.5W61.5O
14@ Liberty48-42W-2.5W61.5U
15@ Jacksonville State19-15W----
17@ Western Michigan6-41L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-5
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off83thRush Off31thRed Zone Off49th3rd Down Off80thPass Def61thRush Def20thRed Zone Def65th3rd Down Def65th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01859th+0.02336th
Red Zone-0.01549th-0.08265th
Third Down+0.26580th-0.02165th
No Garbage Time+0.01457th+0.00442th
First Half+0.01050th-0.04259th
Second Half+0.02868th+0.08816th
Early Downs-0.07319th+0.0907th
Passing Downs+0.12383th-0.06061th
Standard Downs-0.04031th+0.06420th
Goal to Go-0.20718th-0.10764th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
13.6
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
402.4
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — Kennesaw State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKennesaw StateOpponents
Scoring
Points374357
Points / Game26.725.5
First Downs
Total301297
Rushing137128
Passing137138
Penalty2731
Rushing
Attempts543556
Yards2,2312,584
Yards / Carry4.14.6
Yards / Game159.4184.6
Touchdowns2025
Passing
Attempts423421
Completions260257
Completion %61.5%61.0%
Yards3,4033,081
Yards / Attempt8.07.3
Touchdowns2619
Interceptions119
Passer Rating144.13133.14
Total Offense
Plays966977
Yards5,6345,665
Yards / Play5.85.8
Yards / Game402.4404.6
Punt Returns
Returns2512
Yards23459
Average9.44.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2738
Yards530736
Average19.619.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6666
Yards2,6362,833
Average39.942.9
Interception Returns
Returns911
Yards129230
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles2014
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties104104
Yards925944
Yards / Game66.167.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2531:55
Third Downs
Attempts189197
Conversions7675
Conversion %40.2%38.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2231
Conversions1316
Conversion %59.1%51.6%
Red Zone
Trips5054
Scores (TD + FG)3841
Score %76.0%75.9%
Touchdowns2831
TD %56.0%57.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2018
Made1310
Pct65.0%55.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4642
Made4341
Pct93.5%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →