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MSST

Mississippi State

BulldogsRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference5-8#45 (+5.06)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

67· COverall
Offense
70· BRating
45· CPer play
41· CConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
18· DPer play
20· DConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.047
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.008
Defensive EPA/play
+0.074
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
47.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.082
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.071
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.26

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.82
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#45
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#84
model 39 higher
Recruiting Rank
#29
recruiting 16 spots higher
17 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
57th
Opp-adjusted defense
31th
Offensive EPA/play
45th
Defensive EPA/play
18th
Offensive success rate
49th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, passing offense4352Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3903Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3604Georgia State2022OA +0.008 / +0.002similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3575Virginia Tech2018OA +0.023 / -0.095similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate357

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Southern Miss34-17W-14.0W60.5U
2vs Arizona State24-20W+6.5W59U
3vs Alcorn State63-0W-42.5W55.5O
4vs Northern Illinois38-10W-16.5W47.5O
5vs Tennessee34-41L+7.3W69.25O
6@ Texas A&M9-31L+17.5L56.5U
8@ Florida21-23L+10.5W46.5U
9vs Texas38-45L+2.3L62.5O
10@ Arkansas38-35W+5.8W53.5O
11vs Georgia21-41L+9.5L56O
12@ Missouri27-49L+7.0L51.5O
14vs Ole Miss19-38L----
19vs Wake Forest29-43L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
5-8
38.5%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off82thRush Off35thRed Zone Off54th3rd Down Off77thPass Def21thRush Def27thRed Zone Def46th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02363th+0.06421th
Red Zone+0.01754th+0.00146th
Third Down+0.25677th+0.13234th
No Garbage Time-0.01046th+0.07619th
First Half-0.05231th+0.02038th
Second Half+0.10784th+0.1109th
Early Downs-0.06923th+0.03125th
Passing Downs+0.11682th+0.08621th
Standard Downs-0.02935th+0.05227th
Goal to Go+0.03659th-0.12366th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.5%Rush 58.5%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
14.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
399.2
Pts/Drive
2.26
3rd Down%
42.0%
3&Out%
23.2%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMississippi StateOpponents
Scoring
Points395393
Points / Game30.430.2
First Downs
Total285281
Rushing131125
Passing122122
Penalty3234
Rushing
Attempts549497
Yards2,0542,422
Yards / Carry3.74.9
Yards / Game158.0186.3
Touchdowns2919
Passing
Attempts389396
Completions243239
Completion %62.5%60.4%
Yards3,1352,899
Yards / Attempt8.17.3
Touchdowns2024
Interceptions913
Passer Rating142.50135.28
Total Offense
Plays938893
Yards5,1895,321
Yards / Play5.56.0
Yards / Game399.2409.3
Punt Returns
Returns1314
Yards179158
Average13.811.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns914
Yards118350
Average13.125.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5860
Yards2,6152,470
Average45.141.2
Interception Returns
Returns139
Yards132111
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1412
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties94110
Yards800919
Yards / Game61.570.7
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4732:11
Third Downs
Attempts188179
Conversions7974
Conversion %42.0%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2916
Conversions138
Conversion %44.8%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5144
Scores (TD + FG)4536
Score %88.2%81.8%
Touchdowns3427
TD %66.7%61.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2021
Made1716
Pct85.0%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4646
Made4645
Pct100.0%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →