Fourth Down Data
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GASO

Georgia Southern

EaglesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference8-5#62 (+1.31)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

54· COverall
Offense
54· CRating
47· CPer play
50· CConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
33· DPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
90· A-Red-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.000
Defensive EPA/play
+0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.026
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.30

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.95
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#62
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#94
model 32 higher
Recruiting Rank
#70
model 8 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
44th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
48th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
59th
Defensive havoc
22th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Mississippi State2025OA +0.008 / -0.047similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3902South Carolina2022OA +0.060 / -0.033similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3903Houston2017OA -0.079 / +0.046similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3824Western Kentucky2023OA +0.064 / -0.027similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3795Delaware2025OA -0.084 / -0.156similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, run defense373

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Boise State45-56L+13.0W56.5O
2@ Nevada20-17W-3.0P55U
3vs South Carolina State42-14W-27.5W55.5O
4@ Ole Miss13-52L+36.3L67U
5@ Georgia State38-21W+3.5W58O
7vs Marshall24-23W+2.5W61.5U
8vs James Madison28-14W+9.5W58.5U
9@ Old Dominion19-47L----
10@ South Alabama34-30W+6.0W59.5O
12vs Troy20-28L-8.0L54U
13@ Coastal Carolina26-6W+2.5W57U
14vs App State29-20W-2.5W62.5U
17@ Sam Houston26-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4-1
66.7%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS6-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off24thRed Zone Off91th3rd Down Off70thPass Def50thRush Def22thRed Zone Def56th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01453th+0.04229th
Red Zone+0.25091th-0.03556th
Third Down+0.18870th+0.02364th
No Garbage Time-0.00144th+0.02933th
First Half+0.04366th+0.05425th
Second Half-0.01537th+0.03038th
Early Downs-0.09714th+0.03226th
Passing Downs+0.14784th+0.01550th
Standard Downs-0.05424th+0.05522th
Goal to Go+0.08961th-0.04054th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.9%Rush 50.1%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
365.4
Pts/Drive
2.30
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
19.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia SouthernOpponents
Scoring
Points364359
Points / Game28.027.6
First Downs
Total283273
Rushing109105
Passing139154
Penalty3514
Rushing
Attempts447447
Yards1,6592,210
Yards / Carry3.74.9
Yards / Game127.6170.0
Touchdowns2423
Passing
Attempts446438
Completions289277
Completion %64.8%63.2%
Yards3,0913,362
Yards / Attempt6.97.7
Touchdowns2121
Interceptions1113
Passer Rating133.62137.60
Total Offense
Plays893885
Yards4,7505,572
Yards / Play5.36.3
Yards / Game365.4428.6
Punt Returns
Returns1414
Yards9565
Average6.84.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3420
Yards723335
Average21.316.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5851
Yards2,4792,095
Average42.741.1
Interception Returns
Returns1311
Yards136130
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2216
Lost116
Penalties
Penalties73110
Yards6281,007
Yards / Game48.377.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3029:29
Third Downs
Attempts178173
Conversions8181
Conversion %45.5%46.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1619
Conversions127
Conversion %75.0%36.8%
Red Zone
Trips4448
Scores (TD + FG)4140
Score %93.2%83.3%
Touchdowns3331
TD %75.0%64.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1819
Made1513
Pct83.3%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3943
Made3742
Pct94.9%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts73
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →