Fourth Down Data
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WKU

Western Kentucky

HilltoppersPass-Heavy
Conference USA8-5#64 (+0.76)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

53· COverall
Offense
70· BRating
77· BPer play
48· CConsistency
42· CBig plays
Defense
46· CRating
49· CPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.064
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.079
Defensive EPA/play
+0.004
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.075
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.74
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#64
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#55
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
78th
Defensive EPA/play
49th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
42th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
67th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3792South Carolina2022OA +0.060 / -0.033similar: run defense, defensive success rate, passing offense3523Baylor2022OA +0.078 / -0.009similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3454Hawai'i2020OA -0.004 / -0.014similar: offensive success rate, run defense, rushing offense3425Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA324

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Florida41-24W-11.5W70.5U
2vs Houston Christian52-22W----
3@ Ohio State10-63L+29.0L64O
4@ Troy24-27L-7.0W60.5U
5vs Middle Tennessee31-10W-6.0W60O
6@ Louisiana Tech35-28W----
8@ Jacksonville State17-20L+4.5L61.5O
9vs Liberty29-42L----
10@ UTEP21-13W-8.5L54.5U
11vs New Mexico State29-38L-4.5L57.5O
12vs Sam Houston28-23W-13.0L52.5U
13@ Florida International41-28W-10.0W54.5O
16@ Old Dominion38-35W+2.5W55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off67thRush Off59thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off79thPass Def21thRush Def55thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def30th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04464th+0.03041th
Red Zone+0.37799th+0.02344th
Third Down+0.32779th+0.23830th
No Garbage Time+0.07576th+0.02544th
First Half+0.09472th+0.03739th
Second Half-0.01642th+0.02341th
Early Downs-0.02650th-0.08474th
Passing Downs+0.10867th+0.14021th
Standard Downs+0.00859th-0.02855th
Goal to Go+0.24287th-0.25579th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 60.2%Rush 39.8%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
401.8
Pts/Drive
2.45
3rd Down%
43.2%
3&Out%
18.5%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern KentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points396373
Points / Game30.528.7
First Downs
Total263276
Rushing72133
Passing169127
Penalty2216
Rushing
Attempts357509
Yards1,3702,470
Yards / Carry3.84.9
Yards / Game105.4190.0
Touchdowns1224
Passing
Attempts539430
Completions343251
Completion %63.6%58.4%
Yards3,8532,986
Yards / Attempt7.16.9
Touchdowns3820
Interceptions1415
Passer Rating141.75125.08
Total Offense
Plays896939
Yards5,2235,456
Yards / Play5.85.8
Yards / Game401.8419.7
Punt Returns
Returns1119
Yards40144
Average3.67.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2418
Yards461283
Average19.215.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5959
Yards2,4032,447
Average40.741.5
Interception Returns
Returns1514
Yards131279
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1823
Lost911
Penalties
Penalties5982
Yards478699
Yards / Game36.853.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1630:22
Third Downs
Attempts192196
Conversions8378
Conversion %43.2%39.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2640
Conversions1627
Conversion %61.5%67.5%
Red Zone
Trips4047
Scores (TD + FG)3838
Score %95.0%80.9%
Touchdowns3130
TD %77.5%63.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1214
Made910
Pct75.0%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4748
Made4747
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts61
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →