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ARST
Arkansas State
Red WolvesBalancedSun Belt Conference0-1
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.034
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.059
Defensive EPA/play
+0.289
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.2%
Def Success Rate
52.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
33.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.230
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00
Peer Context
Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense85th
Opp-adjusted defense25th
Offensive EPA/play47th
Defensive EPA/play7th
Offensive success rate74th
Explosiveness91th
Defensive havoc14th
Points per drive36th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3352Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, turnover rate3333USC2021OA +0.029 / -0.095similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3334Wake Forest2024OA -0.006 / -0.031similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense3195Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: passing offense, pass defense, takeaway rate303
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Memphis | 24-42 | L | +11.0 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 2 | vs West Georgia | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ TCU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Kennesaw State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ Louisiana | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs South Alabama | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Southern Miss | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Georgia State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs UL Monroe | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Coastal Carolina | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Louisiana Tech | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Troy | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Style & Tendencies
Pass 50.8%Rush 49.2%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
10.6%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
0.0%