← All Teams
TROY
Troy
TrojansRun-HeavySun Belt Conference1-0#101 (-4.13)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
27· DOverall
Offense
21· DRating
35· DPer play
14· FConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
42· CPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.024
Defensive EPA/play
-0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.4%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.001
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.85
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.16
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Troy ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense31th
Opp-adjusted defense35th
Offensive EPA/play36th
Defensive EPA/play42th
Offensive success rate16th
Explosiveness61th
Defensive havoc79th
Points per drive34th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Middle Tennessee2025OA -0.065 / -0.153similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3462Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3353Georgia Southern2019OA -0.051 / +0.035similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense3304California2019OA +0.044 / +0.040similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3235LSU2021OA -0.022 / +0.029similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, havoc rate320
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Sam Houston | 24-21 | W | -16.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Alabama State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Missouri | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Utah State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Southern Miss | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Louisiana | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs UL Monroe | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ James Madison | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs Louisiana Tech | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ South Alabama | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs Georgia Southern | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ Arkansas State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.024 | 36th | -0.025 | 42th |
| Red Zone | +0.295 | 68th | +1.066 | 5th |
| Third Down | -0.163 | 31th | +0.457 | 16th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.024 | 35th | -0.025 | 42th |
| First Half | +0.106 | 58th | +0.203 | 13th |
| Second Half | -0.222 | 18th | -0.239 | 72th |
| Early Downs | -0.186 | 17th | -0.107 | 55th |
| Passing Downs | +0.035 | 48th | +0.395 | 13th |
| Standard Downs | -0.070 | 32th | -0.230 | 69th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 36.4%Rush 63.6%
Havoc/Game
20.0
Havoc Rate
27.0%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
342.0
Pts/Drive
1.85
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
30.8%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Troy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Troy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 24 | 21 |
| Points / Game | 24.0 | 21.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 18 | 22 |
| Rushing | 9 | 5 |
| Passing | 8 | 15 |
| Penalty | 1 | 2 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 24 |
| Yards | 177 | 38 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| Yards / Game | 177.0 | 38.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 46 |
| Completions | 12 | 30 |
| Completion % | 50.0% | 65.2% |
| Yards | 165 | 335 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 3 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
| Passer Rating | 149.00 | 143.57 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 66 | 70 |
| Yards | 342 | 373 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 342.0 | 373.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 2 |
| Yards | 0 | 11 |
| Average | — | 5.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 2 |
| Yards | 44 | 15 |
| Average | 22.0 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 8 | 7 |
| Yards | 375 | 288 |
| Average | 46.9 | 41.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 18 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 1 | 0 |
| Lost | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 6 | 6 |
| Yards | 55 | 35 |
| Yards / Game | 55.0 | 35.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:09 | 30:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 14 |
| Conversions | 6 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 42.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Conversions | 0 | 0 |
| Conversion % | — | 0.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 3 | 2 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 3 | 2 |
| Score % | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 0 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
| Pct | 100.0% | — |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 3 | 3 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.