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NEV
Nevada
Wolf PackBalancedMountain West Conference2-10#126 (-7.41)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
7· FOverall
Offense
10· FRating
8· FPer play
5· FConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
52· CPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.135
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.196
Defensive EPA/play
-0.029
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.9%
Def Success Rate
44.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.167
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.109
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.41
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.25
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#126
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#115
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 51 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense8th
Opp-adjusted defense26th
Offensive EPA/play8th
Defensive EPA/play53th
Offensive success rate4th
Explosiveness21th
Defensive havoc48th
Points per drive12th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UTSA2018OA -0.201 / -0.068similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3892UTEP2024OA -0.081 / +0.004similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3713West Virginia2025OA -0.070 / +0.036similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3474Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3455Miami (OH)2022OA -0.109 / -0.028similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, TD drive rate339
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ New Mexico State | 23-12 | W | -8.3 | W | 48 | U |
| 1 | vs Texas State | 38-14 | W | -1.0 | W | 51.25 | O |
| 2 | vs Incarnate Word | 41-55 | L | -4.5 | L | 59 | O |
| 3 | @ Iowa | 0-27 | L | +24.0 | L | 46 | O |
| 4 | @ Air Force | 20-48 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Colorado State | 14-17 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Hawai'i | 16-31 | L | -6.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 8 | vs San Diego State | 7-23 | L | +7.0 | L | 36 | U |
| 9 | @ San José State | 28-35 | L | +24.5 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Boise State | 3-41 | L | +20.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Fresno State | 14-41 | L | +22.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 13 | @ UNLV | 22-27 | L | +12.5 | W | 49 | P |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.175 | 8th | -0.015 | 49th |
| Red Zone | -0.074 | 33th | -0.129 | 65th |
| Third Down | +0.015 | 39th | +0.145 | 29th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.188 | 8th | -0.025 | 51th |
| First Half | -0.211 | 6th | -0.010 | 46th |
| Second Half | -0.139 | 13th | -0.019 | 47th |
| Early Downs | -0.223 | 2th | +0.018 | 32th |
| Passing Downs | -0.155 | 16th | -0.057 | 67th |
| Standard Downs | -0.189 | 9th | +0.008 | 35th |
| Goal to Go | -0.017 | 51th | -0.166 | 67th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
304.7
Pts/Drive
1.41
3rd Down%
35.1%
3&Out%
28.9%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Nevada | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 226 | 371 |
| Points / Game | 18.8 | 30.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 205 | 235 |
| Rushing | 84 | 93 |
| Passing | 100 | 119 |
| Penalty | 21 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 427 | 458 |
| Yards | 1,429 | 1,975 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 119.1 | 164.6 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 398 | 356 |
| Completions | 217 | 214 |
| Completion % | 54.5% | 60.1% |
| Yards | 2,227 | 2,779 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.6 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 103.31 | 135.26 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 825 | 814 |
| Yards | 3,656 | 4,754 |
| Yards / Play | 4.4 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 304.7 | 396.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 15 |
| Yards | 103 | 140 |
| Average | 7.4 | 9.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 16 |
| Yards | 636 | 293 |
| Average | 19.3 | 18.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 73 | 51 |
| Yards | 2,893 | 2,205 |
| Average | 39.6 | 43.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 8 |
| Yards | 56 | 66 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 16 |
| Lost | 9 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 101 |
| Yards | 661 | 870 |
| Yards / Game | 55.1 | 72.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:29 | 31:17 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 194 | 175 |
| Conversions | 68 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 35.1% | 42.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 17 |
| Conversions | 13 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 52.0% | 64.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 35 |
| Score % | 82.9% | 81.4% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 23 |
| TD % | 54.3% | 53.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 21 |
| Made | 13 | 18 |
| Pct | 76.5% | 85.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 44 |
| Made | 25 | 43 |
| Pct | 96.2% | 97.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.