Fourth Down Data
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UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersBalanced
American Conference3-9#123 (-10.09)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

8· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
2· FPer play
4· FConsistency
2· FBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
44· CPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.201
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.068
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.223
Defensive EPA/play
+0.015
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.9%
Def Success Rate
47.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.239
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.07

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.66
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#123
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 46 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
1th
Opp-adjusted defense
26th
Offensive EPA/play
2th
Defensive EPA/play
44th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
2th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
2th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Nevada2022OA -0.135 / -0.053similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3892UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, havoc rate3563Stanford2025OA -0.085 / +0.028similar: run defense, offensive success rate, rushing offense3434Marshall2026OA -0.032 / -0.030similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3425San José State2018OA -0.139 / -0.048similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate341

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Arizona State7-49L+17.0L53.5O
2vs Baylor20-37L+17.0P55O
3@ Kansas State17-41L+20.5L46.5O
4vs Texas State25-21W-7.0L49U
5vs UTEP30-21W-10.0L46.5O
6@ Rice20-3W+1.0W50U
7vs Louisiana Tech3-31L+13.0L45.5U
8@ Southern Miss17-27L+16.0W44P
10@ UAB3-52L+21.5L42.5O
11vs Florida International7-45L+10.5L46.5O
12@ Marshall0-23L+27.5W48U
13vs North Texas21-24L+25.0W51.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off2thRush Off6thRed Zone Off14th3rd Down Off6thPass Def23thRush Def70thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2042th-0.00049th
Red Zone-0.16414th+0.07534th
Third Down-0.2286th+0.15227th
No Garbage Time-0.2362th-0.01051th
First Half-0.2762th+0.00940th
Second Half-0.1357th-0.01255th
Early Downs-0.1548th-0.05061th
Passing Downs-0.2672th+0.10923th
Standard Downs-0.1646th-0.05670th
Goal to Go-0.20512th+0.17433th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.3%Rush 46.7%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
9.3
Yards/Game
247.1
Pts/Drive
1.07
3rd Down%
32.6%
3&Out%
25.6%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points170374
Points / Game14.231.2
First Downs
Total183252
Rushing70100
Passing97139
Penalty1613
Rushing
Attempts354465
Yards1,0471,923
Yards / Carry3.04.1
Yards / Game87.3160.3
Touchdowns720
Passing
Attempts404350
Completions204229
Completion %50.5%65.4%
Yards1,9183,303
Yards / Attempt4.79.4
Touchdowns925
Interceptions109
Passer Rating92.78163.13
Total Offense
Plays758815
Yards2,9655,226
Yards / Play3.96.4
Yards / Game247.1435.5
Punt Returns
Returns1624
Yards102160
Average6.46.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3423
Yards675445
Average19.919.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7749
Yards3,2241,915
Average41.939.1
Interception Returns
Returns910
Yards72118
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1215
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties6578
Yards499734
Yards / Game41.661.2
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3932:21
Third Downs
Attempts172156
Conversions5663
Conversion %32.6%40.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2018
Conversions1011
Conversion %50.0%61.1%
Red Zone
Trips2646
Scores (TD + FG)2142
Score %80.8%91.3%
Touchdowns1531
TD %57.7%67.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1921
Made1415
Pct73.7%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1847
Made1847
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →