Fourth Down Data
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EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesPass-Heavy
Mid-American Conference1-1#120 (-7.21)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

13· FOverall
Offense
7· FRating
14· FPer play
20· DConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
67· CPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.190
Defensive EPA/play
-0.223
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.2%
Def Success Rate
40.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
15.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
17.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.033
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.77
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
81th
Offensive EPA/play
14th
Defensive EPA/play
68th
Offensive success rate
20th
Explosiveness
9th
Defensive havoc
61th
Points per drive
28th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Sacramento State2026OA -0.109 / +0.054similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate4382Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, run defense3843Troy2021OA -0.126 / -0.004similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive EPA3734Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3595Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate354

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Sacramento State28-17W-9.0W53.5U
1vs San José State21-27L-3.0L56U
2@ Michigan State------
3@ Wisconsin------
4vs Lindenwood------
5@ Massachusetts------
6@ Akron------
7vs Toledo------
8@ Ohio------
10vs Central Michigan------
12@ Western Michigan------
13vs Kent State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-1
50.0%
O/U Record
0-2
0.0%
Straight Up
1-1
50.0%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off9thRush Off34thRed Zone Off75th3rd Down Off12thPass Def76thRush Def62thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def49th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.19013th-0.22374th
Red Zone+0.34175th+0.50321th
Third Down-0.59212th-0.07549th
No Garbage Time-0.19014th-0.22369th
First Half-0.20218th-0.46989th
Second Half-0.17423th-0.00940th
Early Downs+0.00843th-0.28480th
Passing Downs-0.4269th-0.26176th
Standard Downs-0.05734th-0.19262th
Goal to Go+0.07733th+0.62533th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 59.6%Rush 40.4%
Havoc/Game
16.0
Havoc Rate
22.5%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
10.5
Yards/Game
314.5
Pts/Drive
1.50
3rd Down%
25.8%
3&Out%
35.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points4944
Points / Game24.522.0
First Downs
Total3432
Rushing1110
Passing1921
Penalty41
Rushing
Attempts5553
Yards176186
Yards / Carry3.23.5
Yards / Game88.093.0
Touchdowns31
Passing
Attempts8187
Completions5148
Completion %63.0%55.2%
Yards453538
Yards / Attempt5.66.2
Touchdowns33
Interceptions12
Passer Rating119.69113.90
Total Offense
Plays136140
Yards629724
Yards / Play4.65.2
Yards / Game314.5362.0
Punt Returns
Returns25
Yards1638
Average8.07.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns41
Yards9015
Average22.515.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts1614
Yards634562
Average39.640.1
Interception Returns
Returns21
Yards90
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles13
Lost12
Penalties
Penalties823
Yards64185
Yards / Game32.092.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1828:42
Third Downs
Attempts3130
Conversions88
Conversion %25.8%26.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts44
Conversions12
Conversion %25.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips43
Scores (TD + FG)33
Score %75.0%100.0%
Touchdowns32
TD %75.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts13
Made03
Pct0.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts75
Made75
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →