Fourth Down Data
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WVU

West Virginia

MountaineersRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference4-8#78 (-2.64)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
37· DRating
7· FPer play
10· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
54· CPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.151
Defensive EPA/play
-0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.3%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.125
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.091
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#78
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#117
model 39 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
recruiting 29 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where West Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
24th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
7th
Defensive EPA/play
55th
Offensive success rate
13th
Explosiveness
1th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTEP2024OA -0.081 / +0.004similar: passing offense, run defense, offensive EPA3962Illinois2019OA -0.087 / +0.006similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3783Nevada2022OA -0.135 / -0.053similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3474Northwestern2018OA -0.019 / +0.090similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3325South Carolina2025OA -0.037 / +0.088similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA323

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Robert Morris45-3W-38.5W55.5U
2@ Ohio10-17L+6.5L51.5U
3vs Pittsburgh31-24W-1.5W36.5O
4@ Kansas10-41L+12.5L54.5U
5vs Utah14-48L+24.0L49.5O
6@ BYU24-38L----
8@ UCF13-45L+7.5L47O
9vs TCU17-23L+16.5W55.5U
10@ Houston45-35W+13.0W48.5O
11vs Colorado29-22W-6.5W53U
12@ Arizona State23-25L+11.5W47.5O
14vs Texas Tech0-49L+23.5L52.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-0
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off17thRed Zone Off40th3rd Down Off19thPass Def22thRush Def81thRed Zone Def74th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1248th-0.02856th
Red Zone-0.05940th-0.12074th
Third Down-0.12119th+0.14828th
No Garbage Time-0.1665th-0.02554th
First Half-0.2123th+0.04129th
Second Half-0.03437th-0.10885th
Early Downs-0.06126th-0.12889th
Passing Downs-0.2208th+0.08422th
Standard Downs-0.07417th-0.09581th
Goal to Go-0.07738th+0.14533th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.5%Rush 61.5%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
11.3
Yards/Game
349.5
Pts/Drive
1.58
3rd Down%
29.8%
3&Out%
27.6%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — West Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWest VirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points261370
Points / Game21.830.8
First Downs
Total225258
Rushing11598
Passing86132
Penalty2428
Rushing
Attempts523479
Yards1,9271,725
Yards / Carry3.73.6
Yards / Game160.6143.8
Touchdowns2215
Passing
Attempts327390
Completions192253
Completion %58.7%64.9%
Yards2,2673,185
Yards / Attempt6.98.2
Touchdowns1028
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating120.31151.52
Total Offense
Plays850869
Yards4,1944,910
Yards / Play4.95.7
Yards / Game349.5409.2
Punt Returns
Returns1328
Yards106172
Average8.26.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1023
Yards198514
Average19.822.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6653
Yards2,8032,221
Average42.541.9
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards221221
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1925
Lost79
Penalties
Penalties6980
Yards672650
Yards / Game56.054.2
Time of Possession
Per Game26:3433:26
Third Downs
Attempts178182
Conversions5370
Conversion %29.8%38.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4228
Conversions1919
Conversion %45.2%67.9%
Red Zone
Trips3353
Scores (TD + FG)2745
Score %81.8%84.9%
Touchdowns2031
TD %60.6%58.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1222
Made1018
Pct83.3%81.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3243
Made3142
Pct96.9%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →