Fourth Down Data
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NU

Northwestern

WildcatsBalanced
Big Ten Conference9-5#50 (+2.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

62· COverall
Offense
26· DRating
13· FPer play
18· DConsistency
3· FBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
70· BPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
59· CRed-zone O
79· BRed-zone D
17· D3rd down O
47· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.090
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.112
Defensive EPA/play
-0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.039
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.69

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.56
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#50
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#21
AP 29 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
model 6 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
81th
Offensive EPA/play
14th
Defensive EPA/play
71th
Offensive success rate
17th
Explosiveness
3th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, run defense3712Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, rushing offense3693Sam Houston2023OA -0.134 / +0.037similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, rushing offense3674Temple2019OA -0.103 / +0.056similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate3625Texas2017OA -0.139 / +0.201similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA355

2018 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Purdue31-27W+7.0W43O
2vs Duke7-21L-2.5L47.5U
3vs Akron34-39L-21.5L45.5O
5vs Michigan17-20L+14.5W46.5U
6@ Michigan State29-19W+10.5W43O
7vs Nebraska34-31W-3.0P59O
8@ Rutgers18-15W-20.0L48.5U
9vs Wisconsin31-17W+4.5W50U
10vs Notre Dame21-31L+10.0P49.5O
11@ Iowa14-10W+10.0W46.5U
12@ Minnesota24-14W+3.0W48.5U
13vs Illinois24-16W-14.5L56U
14@ Ohio State24-45L+16.5L62.5O
18@ Utah31-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-2
54.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS6-1
Last 5 ATS
PWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off17thRush Off11thRed Zone Off60th3rd Down Off17thPass Def50thRush Def85thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def48th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11213th-0.07274th
Red Zone+0.05560th-0.15080th
Third Down-0.10217th+0.03048th
No Garbage Time-0.10316th-0.07473th
First Half-0.09719th-0.08272th
Second Half-0.1248th-0.06175th
Early Downs-0.08018th-0.07676th
Passing Downs-0.10617th+0.01350th
Standard Downs-0.11511th-0.11585th
Goal to Go+0.11257th-0.27789th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.5%Rush 49.5%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
354.4
Pts/Drive
1.69
3rd Down%
38.7%
3&Out%
23.6%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 14 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthwesternOpponents
Scoring
Points339325
Points / Game24.223.2
First Downs
Total287277
Rushing92104
Passing160160
Penalty3513
Rushing
Attempts518478
Yards1,6091,815
Yards / Carry3.13.8
Yards / Game114.9129.6
Touchdowns2514
Passing
Attempts528505
Completions319323
Completion %60.4%64.0%
Yards3,3523,657
Yards / Attempt6.37.2
Touchdowns1721
Interceptions1612
Passer Rating118.31133.76
Total Offense
Plays1,046983
Yards4,9615,472
Yards / Play4.75.6
Yards / Game354.4390.9
Punt Returns
Returns2421
Yards146125
Average6.16.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1744
Yards369852
Average21.719.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7975
Yards3,1993,202
Average40.542.7
Interception Returns
Returns1216
Yards72202
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles821
Lost314
Penalties
Penalties4099
Yards363947
Yards / Game25.967.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5930:01
Third Downs
Attempts222205
Conversions8675
Conversion %38.7%36.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3223
Conversions128
Conversion %37.5%34.8%
Red Zone
Trips4745
Scores (TD + FG)4036
Score %85.1%80.0%
Touchdowns3021
TD %63.8%46.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1630
Made1020
Pct62.5%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4034
Made3933
Pct97.5%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts44
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →