Fourth Down Data
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TEX

Texas

LonghornsBalanced
Southeastern Conference7-6#27 (+11.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
29· DRating
10· FPer play
10· FConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
93· ARating
89· BPer play
80· BConsistency
Situational
49· CRed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
28· D3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.139
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.201
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.142
Defensive EPA/play
-0.168
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.4%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.026
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.091
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#27
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#11
recruiting 16 spots higher
43 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
89th
Offensive success rate
14th
Explosiveness
5th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
18th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northern Illinois2017OA -0.083 / +0.118similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, passing offense4482Duke2024OA -0.050 / +0.054similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3923Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3914Toledo2024OA -0.022 / +0.030similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, pass defense3845Temple2019OA -0.103 / +0.056similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, pass defense382

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Maryland41-51L+3.0W61.5U
2vs San José State56-0W-25.5W62U
3@ USC24-27L+17.0W66.5U
5@ Iowa State17-7W-5.0W62U
6vs Kansas State40-34W-5.0W48O
7vs Oklahoma24-29L+9.0W61.5U
8vs Oklahoma State10-13L+7.0W64.5U
9@ Baylor38-7W-10.0W53U
10@ TCU7-24L+7.5L45U
11vs Kansas42-27W-32.0L52.5O
12@ West Virginia28-14W+3.0W53.5U
13vs Texas Tech23-27L-7.5L58.5U
18@ Missouri33-16W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
2-10
16.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off20thRush Off17thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off29thPass Def81thRush Def92thRed Zone Def66th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12115th-0.16489th
Red Zone+0.00050th-0.08566th
Third Down-0.14029th-0.58498th
No Garbage Time-0.14210th-0.16889th
First Half-0.07533th-0.15684th
Second Half-0.16511th-0.17289th
Early Downs-0.10919th-0.03053th
Passing Downs-0.12720th-0.14781th
Standard Downs-0.11717th-0.17392th
Goal to Go-0.3627th-0.12163th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.6%Rush 50.4%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
398.5
Pts/Drive
1.68
3rd Down%
38.1%
3&Out%
30.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexasOpponents
Scoring
Points383276
Points / Game29.521.2
First Downs
Total266229
Rushing10681
Passing143130
Penalty1718
Rushing
Attempts507462
Yards1,8151,389
Yards / Carry3.63.0
Yards / Game139.6106.8
Touchdowns2414
Passing
Attempts499454
Completions298261
Completion %59.7%57.5%
Yards3,3653,364
Yards / Attempt6.77.4
Touchdowns1817
Interceptions1116
Passer Rating123.86125.04
Total Offense
Plays1,006916
Yards5,1804,753
Yards / Play5.15.2
Yards / Game398.5365.6
Punt Returns
Returns2017
Yards179112
Average8.96.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2635
Yards612877
Average23.525.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts8492
Yards3,9843,881
Average47.442.2
Interception Returns
Returns1611
Yards328190
Touchdowns51
Fumbles
Fumbles1918
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties9289
Yards869676
Yards / Game66.852.0
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1928:41
Third Downs
Attempts226199
Conversions8654
Conversion %38.1%27.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3020
Conversions146
Conversion %46.7%30.0%
Red Zone
Trips4743
Scores (TD + FG)3735
Score %78.7%81.4%
Touchdowns2921
TD %61.7%48.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1922
Made1116
Pct57.9%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4830
Made4830
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →