Fourth Down Data
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ILL

Illinois

Fighting IlliniBalanced
Big Ten Conference6-7#80 (-3.40)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

41· COverall
Offense
24· DRating
15· DPer play
13· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
49· CRating
61· CPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
62· CRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.087
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.112
Defensive EPA/play
-0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.6%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.087
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.051
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#80
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#52
recruiting 28 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
16th
Opp-adjusted defense
54th
Offensive EPA/play
15th
Defensive EPA/play
61th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
1th
Defensive havoc
49th
Points per drive
25th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Miami (OH)2025OA -0.103 / +0.022similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense3832West Virginia2025OA -0.070 / +0.036similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3773Bowling Green2022OA -0.100 / -0.065similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3544Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: run defense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3515Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA350

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Akron42-3W+6.0L47.5O
2@ UConn31-23W-21.0L59U
3vs Eastern Michigan31-34L-7.0L57.5O
4vs Nebraska38-42L+13.0W62.5O
6@ Minnesota17-40L+14.0L58U
7vs Michigan25-42L+24.5W49O
8vs Wisconsin24-23W+28.5W52U
9@ Purdue24-6W+9.0W54.5U
10vs Rutgers38-10W-19.0W48.5U
11@ Michigan State37-34W+15.0W47O
13@ Iowa10-19L+15.0W48U
14vs Northwestern10-29L-6.5L39P
18vs California20-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS6-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off24thRed Zone Off71th3rd Down Off12thPass Def48thRush Def69thRed Zone Def62th3rd Down Def37th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10217th-0.02763th
Red Zone+0.08971th-0.05862th
Third Down-0.19112th+0.08537th
No Garbage Time-0.12014th-0.02060th
First Half-0.07319th+0.01147th
Second Half-0.13216th-0.06878th
Early Downs-0.06424th-0.09083th
Passing Downs-0.17111th-0.00148th
Standard Downs-0.06224th-0.04069th
Goal to Go+0.03657th+0.07030th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.7%Rush 57.3%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
11.9
Yards/Game
329.5
Pts/Drive
1.79
3rd Down%
35.4%
3&Out%
27.7%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points347340
Points / Game26.726.2
First Downs
Total226277
Rushing97131
Passing111124
Penalty1822
Rushing
Attempts491594
Yards1,8742,542
Yards / Carry3.84.3
Yards / Game144.2195.5
Touchdowns1919
Passing
Attempts366355
Completions198207
Completion %54.1%58.3%
Yards2,4092,768
Yards / Attempt6.67.8
Touchdowns1921
Interceptions912
Passer Rating121.60136.57
Total Offense
Plays857949
Yards4,2835,310
Yards / Play5.05.6
Yards / Game329.5408.5
Punt Returns
Returns2127
Yards119231
Average5.78.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3218
Yards710294
Average22.216.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7865
Yards3,4372,614
Average44.140.2
Interception Returns
Returns129
Yards24997
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles2123
Lost916
Penalties
Penalties8757
Yards797464
Yards / Game61.335.7
Time of Possession
Per Game26:0233:58
Third Downs
Attempts181191
Conversions6471
Conversion %35.4%37.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1522
Conversions514
Conversion %33.3%63.6%
Red Zone
Trips3453
Scores (TD + FG)2944
Score %85.3%83.0%
Touchdowns2429
TD %70.6%54.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1926
Made1319
Pct68.4%73.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4336
Made4233
Pct97.7%91.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →