Fourth Down Data
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M-OH

Miami (OH)

RedHawksBalanced
Mid-American Conference7-7#85 (-4.65)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

37· DOverall
Offense
13· FRating
19· DPer play
22· DConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
80· BPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.091
Defensive EPA/play
-0.098
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.0%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.007
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.81

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#85
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#69
market 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 6 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
63th
Offensive EPA/play
19th
Defensive EPA/play
81th
Offensive success rate
21th
Explosiveness
21th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
24th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2024OA -0.043 / +0.043similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive success rate4432Minnesota2017OA -0.088 / +0.031similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense4093Florida State2017OA -0.027 / +0.090similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3904Florida2017OA +0.003 / +0.060similar: pass defense, passing offense, havoc rate3875Wyoming2017OA -0.152 / +0.087similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate383

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Wisconsin0-17L----
2@ Rutgers17-45L+20.5L54O
4vs UNLV38-41L+2.0L49.5O
5vs Lindenwood38-0W-30.5W37.5O
6@ Northern Illinois25-14W-8.5W46.5U
7@ Akron20-7W-11.5W46.5U
8vs Eastern Michigan44-30W-13.0W47.5O
9vs Western Michigan26-17W+1.5W36.5O
11@ Ohio20-24L+4.5L45.5U
12vs Toledo3-24L-2.5W38.5O
13@ Buffalo37-20W----
14vs Ball State45-24W-17.5W41.5O
15@ Western Michigan13-23L+1.5L43.5U
18@ Fresno State3-18L+5.5L32.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
7-7
50.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-4
Favorite ATS6-0
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off33thRush Off11thRed Zone Off34th3rd Down Off15thPass Def59thRush Def77thRed Zone Def61th3rd Down Def19th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09317th-0.07069th
Red Zone-0.07734th-0.05861th
Third Down-0.15715th+0.19519th
No Garbage Time-0.08123th-0.08577th
First Half-0.09720th-0.08576th
Second Half-0.08918th-0.05467th
Early Downs-0.04234th-0.11784th
Passing Downs-0.08333th-0.05759th
Standard Downs-0.09811th-0.07777th
Goal to Go-0.03750th-0.16473th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.8%Rush 57.2%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
337.6
Pts/Drive
1.81
3rd Down%
34.7%
3&Out%
22.3%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiami (OH)Opponents
Scoring
Points329304
Points / Game23.521.7
First Downs
Total247261
Rushing112103
Passing113135
Penalty2223
Rushing
Attempts496502
Yards2,1041,880
Yards / Carry4.23.7
Yards / Game150.3134.3
Touchdowns1712
Passing
Attempts371437
Completions183247
Completion %49.3%56.5%
Yards2,6222,805
Yards / Attempt7.16.4
Touchdowns1722
Interceptions1114
Passer Rating117.88120.65
Total Offense
Plays867939
Yards4,7264,685
Yards / Play5.55.0
Yards / Game337.6334.6
Punt Returns
Returns2010
Yards17499
Average8.79.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2126
Yards555681
Average26.426.2
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts6469
Yards2,6632,742
Average41.639.7
Interception Returns
Returns1411
Yards148190
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles918
Lost46
Penalties
Penalties7876
Yards688555
Yards / Game49.139.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4830:11
Third Downs
Attempts176204
Conversions6186
Conversion %34.7%42.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2623
Conversions1111
Conversion %42.3%47.8%
Red Zone
Trips4345
Scores (TD + FG)3737
Score %86.0%82.2%
Touchdowns2524
TD %58.1%53.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2319
Made2017
Pct87.0%89.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3633
Made3533
Pct97.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →