Fourth Down Data
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FSU

Florida State

SeminolesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#29 (+10.93)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

78· BOverall
Offense
60· CRating
26· DPer play
34· DConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
85· BRating
66· CPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.090
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.086
Defensive EPA/play
-0.077
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
41.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.009
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.087
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.82
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#3
recruiting 26 spots higher
58 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
80th
Offensive EPA/play
26th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
38th
Explosiveness
8th
Defensive havoc
80th
Points per drive
35th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2017OA +0.003 / +0.060similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, run defense4222Missouri2022OA -0.024 / +0.119similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense4193Miami (OH)2025OA -0.103 / +0.022similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3904Michigan2024OA -0.043 / +0.043similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3815LSU2021OA -0.022 / +0.029similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA375

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Alabama7-24L-13.0W48.5O
4vs NC State21-27L-10.5L51U
5@ Wake Forest26-19W-7.0P46.5U
6vs Miami20-24L+2.5L45.5U
7@ Duke17-10W-7.0P45.5U
8vs Louisville28-31L-7.0L58O
9@ Boston College3-35L-6.0L46.5U
10vs Syracuse27-24W-7.5L51.5U
11@ Clemson14-31L+16.5L45P
12vs Delaware State77-6W-52.0W--
13@ Florida38-22W-5.0W43O
14vs UL Monroe42-10W-26.0W63U
18vs Southern Miss42-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-6-2
40.0%
O/U Record
3-7-1
30.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off22thRush Off35thRed Zone Off62th3rd Down Off13thPass Def47thRush Def84thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def42th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08126th-0.09271th
Red Zone+0.05362th+0.10530th
Third Down-0.34213th+0.02542th
No Garbage Time-0.08627th-0.06965th
First Half-0.10719th-0.13075th
Second Half-0.05433th-0.05462th
Early Downs-0.01857th-0.11282th
Passing Downs-0.11322th-0.01147th
Standard Downs-0.06635th-0.13884th
Goal to Go-0.03547th+0.14026th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.7%Rush 57.3%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
21.5%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
11.3
Yards/Game
351.9
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
35.2%
3&Out%
24.5%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida StateOpponents
Scoring
Points362276
Points / Game27.821.2
First Downs
Total234226
Rushing11090
Passing110120
Penalty1416
Rushing
Attempts463466
Yards2,0241,763
Yards / Carry4.43.8
Yards / Game155.7135.6
Touchdowns1819
Passing
Attempts345440
Completions202243
Completion %58.6%55.2%
Yards2,5512,541
Yards / Attempt7.45.8
Touchdowns2115
Interceptions139
Passer Rating133.21110.90
Total Offense
Plays808906
Yards4,5754,304
Yards / Play5.74.8
Yards / Game351.9331.1
Punt Returns
Returns3120
Yards255253
Average8.212.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2733
Yards653677
Average24.220.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6777
Yards2,8493,190
Average42.541.4
Interception Returns
Returns913
Yards88133
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1910
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties7860
Yards699510
Yards / Game53.839.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4929:34
Third Downs
Attempts162199
Conversions5772
Conversion %35.2%36.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1027
Conversions513
Conversion %50.0%48.1%
Red Zone
Trips4839
Scores (TD + FG)4435
Score %91.7%89.7%
Touchdowns3123
TD %64.6%59.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2121
Made1814
Pct85.7%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4432
Made4228
Pct95.5%87.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →