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MICH
Michigan
WolverinesRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference8-5#46 (+2.79)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
66· COverall
Offense
24· DRating
10· FPer play
21· DConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
83· BRating
75· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.043
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.043
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.133
Defensive EPA/play
-0.078
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.5%
Def Success Rate
40.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.055
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.014
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.80
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.81
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#46
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#89
model 43 higher
Recruiting Rank
#14
recruiting 32 spots higher
48 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense14th
Opp-adjusted defense85th
Offensive EPA/play10th
Defensive EPA/play76th
Offensive success rate23th
Explosiveness10th
Defensive havoc85th
Points per drive20th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Miami (OH)2025OA -0.103 / +0.022similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive success rate4432San Diego State2022OA -0.107 / +0.044similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, run defense4013Florida State2017OA -0.027 / +0.090similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3814Northern Illinois2018OA -0.095 / +0.071similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3805Oklahoma2024OA -0.049 / +0.067similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, rushing offense378
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Fresno State | 30-10 | W | -21.0 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Texas | 12-31 | L | +6.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Arkansas State | 28-18 | W | -23.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 4 | vs USC | 27-24 | W | +5.5 | W | 44 | O |
| 5 | vs Minnesota | 27-24 | W | -9.5 | L | 35.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Washington | 17-27 | L | +2.5 | L | 41.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Illinois | 7-21 | L | -3.0 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Michigan State | 24-17 | W | -4.0 | W | 40.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Oregon | 17-38 | L | +15.0 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Indiana | 15-20 | L | +14.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Northwestern | 50-6 | W | -10.5 | W | 37 | O |
| 14 | @ Ohio State | 13-10 | W | +21.0 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 19 | vs Alabama | 19-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-5
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.118 | 10th | -0.086 | 81th |
| Red Zone | -0.035 | 42th | -0.224 | 90th |
| Third Down | -0.036 | 19th | +0.172 | 31th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.139 | 8th | -0.090 | 80th |
| First Half | -0.150 | 10th | -0.061 | 66th |
| Second Half | -0.089 | 13th | -0.113 | 88th |
| Early Downs | -0.215 | 1th | -0.158 | 96th |
| Passing Downs | -0.103 | 19th | -0.069 | 69th |
| Standard Downs | -0.126 | 7th | -0.096 | 87th |
| Goal to Go | -0.191 | 21th | -0.281 | 87th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.8%Rush 61.2%
Havoc/Game
14.4
Havoc Rate
22.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
11.9
Yards/Game
286.2
Pts/Drive
1.80
3rd Down%
42.0%
3&Out%
22.5%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 286 | 259 |
| Points / Game | 22.0 | 19.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 210 | 226 |
| Rushing | 110 | 81 |
| Passing | 86 | 126 |
| Penalty | 14 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 486 | 385 |
| Yards | 2,043 | 1,179 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| Yards / Game | 157.2 | 90.7 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 308 | 436 |
| Completions | 190 | 262 |
| Completion % | 61.7% | 60.1% |
| Yards | 1,678 | 2,812 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 111.87 | 123.14 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 794 | 821 |
| Yards | 3,721 | 3,991 |
| Yards / Play | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 286.2 | 307.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 14 |
| Yards | 158 | 239 |
| Average | 10.5 | 17.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 12 |
| Yards | 495 | 188 |
| Average | 20.6 | 15.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 55 | 55 |
| Yards | 2,365 | 2,471 |
| Average | 43.0 | 44.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 13 |
| Yards | 149 | 139 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 11 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 52 | 54 |
| Yards | 514 | 409 |
| Yards / Game | 39.5 | 31.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:54 | 28:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 186 |
| Conversions | 74 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 42.0% | 41.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 14 |
| Conversions | 12 | 5 |
| Conversion % | 70.6% | 35.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 36 |
| Score % | 84.6% | 76.6% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 23 |
| TD % | 56.4% | 48.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 28 |
| Made | 21 | 18 |
| Pct | 95.5% | 64.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 27 |
| Made | 27 | 27 |
| Pct | 96.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.