Fourth Down Data
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NIU

Northern Illinois

HuskiesRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference8-6#78 (-0.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

41· COverall
Offense
13· FRating
11· FPer play
28· DConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
86· BPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
88· BRed-zone D
8· F3rd down O
53· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.095
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.071
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.130
Defensive EPA/play
-0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.016
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.133
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#78
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 1 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
17th
Opp-adjusted defense
76th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
29th
Explosiveness
14th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
11th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, havoc rate3942Northwestern2019OA -0.147 / +0.092similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, havoc rate3823Michigan2024OA -0.043 / +0.043similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3804UTEP2024OA -0.081 / +0.004similar: pass defense, passing offense, havoc rate3675Ball State2023OA -0.109 / -0.019similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate363

2018 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Iowa7-33L+1.0L41.5O
2vs Utah6-17L+12.5W47.5U
3vs Central Michigan24-16W-13.5L48U
4@ Florida State19-37L+9.5L44.5O
5@ Eastern Michigan26-23W+3.5W50.5U
6@ Ball State24-16W-3.0W52.5U
7vs Ohio24-21W-5.5L52U
9@ BYU7-6W+6.5W43.5U
10@ Akron36-26W-6.0W37O
11vs Toledo38-15W-3.5W54U
12vs Miami (OH)7-13L-6.5L48U
13@ Western Michigan21-28L-6.5L48.5O
14@ Buffalo30-29W+3.0W51O
17vs UAB13-37L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off12thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off8thPass Def64thRush Def92thRed Zone Def89th3rd Down Def54th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1299th-0.10986th
Red Zone+0.07367th-0.20089th
Third Down-0.1868th+0.01554th
No Garbage Time-0.13011th-0.11586th
First Half-0.08623th-0.09475th
Second Half-0.1723th-0.12392th
Early Downs-0.04728th-0.13194th
Passing Downs-0.1688th-0.06564th
Standard Downs-0.10812th-0.13892th
Goal to Go-0.19414th+0.09948th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.2%Rush 59.8%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
322.3
Pts/Drive
1.45
3rd Down%
36.0%
3&Out%
25.0%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 14 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthern IllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points282317
Points / Game20.122.6
First Downs
Total270286
Rushing14088
Passing111161
Penalty1937
Rushing
Attempts597567
Yards2,3371,529
Yards / Carry3.92.7
Yards / Game166.9109.2
Touchdowns1716
Passing
Attempts401479
Completions236272
Completion %58.9%56.8%
Yards2,1753,469
Yards / Attempt5.47.2
Touchdowns1517
Interceptions118
Passer Rating111.27125.99
Total Offense
Plays9981,046
Yards4,5124,998
Yards / Play4.54.8
Yards / Game322.3357.0
Punt Returns
Returns2117
Yards13094
Average6.25.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1730
Yards277620
Average16.320.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts8678
Yards3,4733,046
Average40.439.1
Interception Returns
Returns811
Yards84130
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1819
Lost911
Penalties
Penalties9182
Yards856633
Yards / Game61.145.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1231:46
Third Downs
Attempts211229
Conversions7689
Conversion %36.0%38.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2624
Conversions1012
Conversion %38.5%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3949
Scores (TD + FG)3241
Score %82.1%83.7%
Touchdowns2224
TD %56.4%49.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1834
Made1325
Pct72.2%73.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2931
Made2928
Pct100.0%90.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →