Fourth Down Data
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MINN

Minnesota

Golden GophersRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference5-7#79 (-1.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

41· COverall
Offense
33· DRating
19· DPer play
39· DConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
62· CPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.088
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.111
Defensive EPA/play
-0.062
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.115
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.71

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#79
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
recruiting 22 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
14th
Opp-adjusted defense
61th
Offensive EPA/play
19th
Defensive EPA/play
62th
Offensive success rate
33th
Explosiveness
12th
Defensive havoc
63th
Points per drive
21th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kentucky2024OA -0.042 / +0.015similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4212Miami (OH)2025OA -0.103 / +0.022similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense4083Georgia Southern2017OA -0.076 / -0.104similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3824Western Michigan2017OA -0.044 / -0.053similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense3675Coastal Carolina2025OA -0.058 / +0.011similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA361

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Buffalo17-7W-22.5L51U
2@ Oregon State48-14W+2.5W50.5O
3vs Middle Tennessee34-3W-13.5W50U
5vs Maryland24-31L-13.5L45O
6@ Purdue17-31L+3.5L45O
7vs Michigan State27-30L+4.0W41O
8vs Illinois24-17W-14.5L49U
9@ Iowa10-17L+7.0P43.5U
10@ Michigan10-33L+16.5L38.5O
11vs Nebraska54-21W--47.5O
12@ Northwestern0-39L+7.0L40.5U
13vs Wisconsin0-31L+19.5L44U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-7-1
30.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
PLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off15thRush Off29thRed Zone Off15th3rd Down Off22thPass Def57thRush Def68thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def58th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11119th-0.06663th
Red Zone-0.16915th+0.12023th
Third Down-0.23322th-0.06458th
No Garbage Time-0.12714th-0.06862th
First Half-0.17311th-0.01447th
Second Half-0.05335th-0.13079th
Early Downs-0.11018th-0.12083th
Passing Downs-0.16115th-0.04157th
Standard Downs-0.08429th-0.08068th
Goal to Go-0.00053th-0.08661th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 30.7%Rush 69.3%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
308.5
Pts/Drive
1.71
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
24.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMinnesotaOpponents
Scoring
Points265274
Points / Game22.122.8
First Downs
Total197208
Rushing120101
Passing6195
Penalty1612
Rushing
Attempts525422
Yards2,1892,066
Yards / Carry4.24.9
Yards / Game182.4172.2
Touchdowns2019
Passing
Attempts233332
Completions110210
Completion %47.2%63.3%
Yards1,5132,094
Yards / Attempt6.56.3
Touchdowns916
Interceptions118
Passer Rating105.06127.32
Total Offense
Plays758754
Yards3,7024,160
Yards / Play4.95.5
Yards / Game308.5346.7
Punt Returns
Returns919
Yards36114
Average4.06.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3535
Yards753768
Average21.521.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6762
Yards2,8492,539
Average42.541.0
Interception Returns
Returns811
Yards98171
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1919
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties3964
Yards340640
Yards / Game28.353.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5729:03
Third Downs
Attempts158164
Conversions5363
Conversion %33.5%38.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1317
Conversions107
Conversion %76.9%41.2%
Red Zone
Trips4138
Scores (TD + FG)3332
Score %80.5%84.2%
Touchdowns2326
TD %56.1%68.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2015
Made149
Pct70.0%60.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3132
Made3129
Pct100.0%90.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →