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HOU
Houston
CougarsBalancedBig 12 Conference7-5#63 (+2.00)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
53· COverall
Offense
27· DRating
48· CPer play
31· DConsistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
79· BRating
51· CPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
79· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.079
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.046
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.025
Defensive EPA/play
-0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.000
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.023
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.22
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#63
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 10 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense17th
Opp-adjusted defense65th
Offensive EPA/play49th
Defensive EPA/play52th
Offensive success rate34th
Explosiveness57th
Defensive havoc47th
Points per drive58th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Memphis2020OA +0.003 / -0.004similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3912Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3823South Florida2023OA -0.009 / -0.084similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3814Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3735Maryland2023OA -0.018 / +0.051similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate364
2017 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | @ Arizona | 19-16 | W | -1.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Rice | 38-3 | W | -22.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Texas Tech | 24-27 | L | -7.0 | L | 68 | U |
| 5 | @ Temple | 20-13 | W | -10.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 6 | vs SMU | 35-22 | W | -10.0 | W | 61 | U |
| 7 | @ Tulsa | 17-45 | L | -13.5 | L | 63 | U |
| 8 | vs Memphis | 38-42 | L | - | - | 61 | O |
| 9 | @ South Florida | 28-24 | W | +10.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 10 | vs East Carolina | 52-27 | W | -23.0 | W | 62 | O |
| 12 | @ Tulane | 17-20 | L | -9.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 13 | vs Navy | 24-14 | W | -6.5 | W | 55 | U |
| 17 | vs Fresno State | 27-33 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.036 | 44th | -0.026 | 52th |
| Red Zone | +0.165 | 82th | -0.085 | 65th |
| Third Down | +0.200 | 86th | -0.217 | 80th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.016 | 51th | -0.032 | 55th |
| First Half | -0.089 | 24th | -0.151 | 83th |
| Second Half | +0.017 | 63th | +0.104 | 10th |
| Early Downs | -0.075 | 34th | -0.009 | 39th |
| Passing Downs | -0.052 | 40th | -0.044 | 58th |
| Standard Downs | -0.028 | 53th | -0.017 | 45th |
| Goal to Go | +0.057 | 62th | +0.033 | 43th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.0%Rush 52.0%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
428.2
Pts/Drive
2.22
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
19.1%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 12 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Houston | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 339 | 286 |
| Points / Game | 28.3 | 23.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 252 | 274 |
| Rushing | 97 | 107 |
| Passing | 139 | 147 |
| Penalty | 16 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 446 | 471 |
| Yards | 2,002 | 1,775 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 166.8 | 147.9 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 411 | 473 |
| Completions | 281 | 295 |
| Completion % | 68.4% | 62.4% |
| Yards | 3,136 | 3,291 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 10 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 139.47 | 121.45 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 857 | 944 |
| Yards | 5,138 | 5,066 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 428.2 | 422.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 9 |
| Yards | 70 | 48 |
| Average | 4.4 | 5.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 36 |
| Yards | 721 | 767 |
| Average | 22.5 | 21.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 61 |
| Yards | 2,423 | 2,487 |
| Average | 41.8 | 40.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 12 |
| Yards | 292 | 156 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 16 |
| Lost | 11 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 79 |
| Yards | 646 | 637 |
| Yards / Game | 53.8 | 53.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:03 | 31:57 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 178 | 202 |
| Conversions | 81 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 45.5% | 39.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 22 |
| Conversions | 8 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 44.4% | 63.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 48 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 37 |
| Score % | 87.5% | 77.1% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 23 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 47.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 31 |
| Made | 12 | 21 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 67.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 32 |
| Made | 43 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.