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MD
Maryland
TerrapinsBalancedBig Ten Conference8-5#34 (+4.25)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
75· BOverall
Offense
78· BRating
45· CPer play
37· DConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
81· BPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
91· A-Red-zone D
28· D3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.018
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.051
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.005
Defensive EPA/play
-0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.056
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.50
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.89
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#34
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#38
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#33
recruiting 1 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Maryland ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense41th
Opp-adjusted defense74th
Offensive EPA/play45th
Defensive EPA/play82th
Offensive success rate46th
Explosiveness79th
Defensive havoc50th
Points per drive70th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Washington State2021OA -0.072 / +0.113similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, pass defense3842Mississippi State2022OA -0.072 / +0.130similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3833Houston2017OA -0.079 / +0.046similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3644Temple2018OA +0.045 / +0.017similar: rushing offense, passing offense, turnover rate3495Western Kentucky2025OA -0.065 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive EPA346
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Towson | 38-6 | W | -38.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Charlotte | 38-20 | W | -24.5 | L | 50 | O |
| 3 | vs Virginia | 42-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Michigan State | 31-9 | W | -7.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Indiana | 44-17 | W | -14.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 6 | @ Ohio State | 17-37 | L | +20.0 | P | 57.25 | U |
| 7 | vs Illinois | 24-27 | L | -14.0 | L | 51 | P |
| 9 | @ Northwestern | 27-33 | L | -13.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Penn State | 15-51 | L | +10.0 | L | 51 | O |
| 11 | @ Nebraska | 13-10 | W | -2.5 | W | 45 | U |
| 12 | vs Michigan | 24-31 | L | +19.0 | W | 50 | O |
| 13 | @ Rutgers | 42-24 | W | -1.0 | W | 44 | O |
| 18 | vs Auburn | 31-13 | W | +7.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5-1
58.3%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.015 | 40th | -0.037 | 69th |
| Red Zone | +0.036 | 58th | -0.217 | 92th |
| Third Down | +0.087 | 28th | +0.137 | 59th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.000 | 47th | -0.060 | 82th |
| First Half | +0.026 | 54th | +0.012 | 47th |
| Second Half | -0.057 | 29th | -0.087 | 83th |
| Early Downs | -0.086 | 28th | -0.157 | 91th |
| Passing Downs | -0.004 | 35th | +0.077 | 36th |
| Standard Downs | -0.021 | 49th | -0.095 | 82th |
| Goal to Go | -0.044 | 35th | -0.327 | 89th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 55.6%Rush 44.4%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
387.3
Pts/Drive
2.50
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
17.0%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Maryland vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Maryland | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 386 | 292 |
| Points / Game | 29.7 | 22.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 273 | 268 |
| Rushing | 93 | 111 |
| Passing | 156 | 127 |
| Penalty | 24 | 30 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 381 | 480 |
| Yards | 1,409 | 1,631 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 108.4 | 125.5 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 477 | 414 |
| Completions | 307 | 236 |
| Completion % | 64.4% | 57.0% |
| Yards | 3,626 | 2,712 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 141.44 | 117.37 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 858 | 894 |
| Yards | 5,035 | 4,343 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 387.3 | 334.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 16 |
| Yards | 101 | 109 |
| Average | 8.4 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 24 |
| Yards | 453 | 563 |
| Average | 19.7 | 23.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 48 | 52 |
| Yards | 1,933 | 2,097 |
| Average | 40.3 | 40.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 13 |
| Yards | 166 | 129 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 11 |
| Lost | 8 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 78 |
| Yards | 735 | 703 |
| Yards / Game | 56.5 | 54.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:12 | 31:48 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 172 | 177 |
| Conversions | 75 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 43.6% | 33.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 35 |
| Conversions | 13 | 22 |
| Conversion % | 68.4% | 62.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 44 | 41 |
| Score % | 84.6% | 80.4% |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 28 |
| TD % | 67.3% | 54.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 20 |
| Made | 14 | 18 |
| Pct | 70.0% | 90.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 47 | 30 |
| Made | 46 | 30 |
| Pct | 97.9% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 4 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.