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MSST
Mississippi State
BulldogsPass-HeavySoutheastern Conference9-4#26 (+5.37)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
81· BOverall
Offense
59· CRating
36· DPer play
67· CConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
79· BRating
80· BPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
55· CRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.072
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.130
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.063
Defensive EPA/play
-0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.043
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.023
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.39
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.66
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.72
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.23
own return game
Return Defense
-0.24
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
AP 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#33
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#26
model & recruiting agree
18 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense30th
Opp-adjusted defense91th
Offensive EPA/play36th
Defensive EPA/play81th
Offensive success rate67th
Explosiveness37th
Defensive havoc71th
Points per drive62th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Maryland2023OA -0.018 / +0.051similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3832Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3593Washington State2021OA -0.072 / +0.113similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3484Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3475Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, passing offense344
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Memphis | 49-23 | W | -16.0 | W | 57 | O |
| 2 | @ Arizona | 39-17 | W | -10.5 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 3 | @ LSU | 16-31 | L | -3.0 | L | 53 | U |
| 4 | vs Bowling Green | 45-14 | W | -30.0 | W | 52 | O |
| 5 | vs Texas A&M | 42-24 | W | -3.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 6 | vs Arkansas | 40-17 | W | -3.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Kentucky | 17-27 | L | -4.0 | L | 49 | U |
| 8 | @ Alabama | 6-30 | L | +21.0 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Auburn | 39-33 | W | -13.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 11 | vs Georgia | 19-45 | L | +16.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 12 | vs East Tennessee State | 56-7 | W | -48.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Ole Miss | 24-22 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | @ Illinois | 19-10 | W | -3.0 | W | 45.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.069 | 33th | -0.082 | 76th |
| Red Zone | +0.035 | 56th | -0.108 | 61th |
| Third Down | +0.064 | 48th | -0.092 | 82th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.061 | 36th | -0.109 | 82th |
| First Half | -0.056 | 38th | -0.171 | 91th |
| Second Half | -0.085 | 29th | -0.005 | 41th |
| Early Downs | -0.026 | 47th | -0.027 | 49th |
| Passing Downs | -0.122 | 21th | -0.166 | 83th |
| Standard Downs | -0.046 | 35th | -0.035 | 58th |
| Goal to Go | -0.226 | 22th | +0.008 | 44th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 68.2%Rush 31.8%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
20.1%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
392.9
Pts/Drive
2.39
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
14.5%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Mississippi State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 411 | 300 |
| Points / Game | 31.6 | 23.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 296 | 239 |
| Rushing | 70 | 96 |
| Passing | 198 | 110 |
| Penalty | 28 | 33 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 295 | 446 |
| Yards | 1,062 | 1,745 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 81.7 | 134.2 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 634 | 423 |
| Completions | 428 | 253 |
| Completion % | 67.5% | 59.8% |
| Yards | 4,046 | 2,734 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 137.01 | 119.19 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 929 | 869 |
| Yards | 5,108 | 4,479 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 392.9 | 344.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 18 |
| Yards | 213 | 137 |
| Average | 10.1 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 33 |
| Yards | 805 | 596 |
| Average | 27.8 | 18.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 53 | 66 |
| Yards | 2,132 | 2,763 |
| Average | 40.2 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 9 |
| Yards | 294 | 72 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 14 |
| Lost | 10 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 82 | 84 |
| Yards | 790 | 643 |
| Yards / Game | 60.8 | 49.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:10 | 29:50 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 182 |
| Conversions | 69 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 39.2% | 33.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 26 |
| Conversions | 15 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 51.7% | 46.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 40 | 36 |
| Score % | 88.9% | 81.8% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 25 |
| TD % | 73.3% | 56.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 22 |
| Made | 12 | 17 |
| Pct | 70.6% | 77.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 31 |
| Made | 45 | 31 |
| Pct | 91.8% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.