Fourth Down Data
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WSU

Washington State

CougarsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference7-6#43 (+3.80)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

68· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
41· CPer play
54· CConsistency
71· BBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
85· BPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.072
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.113
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.020
Defensive EPA/play
-0.107
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.087
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.029
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.32

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.36
own return game
Return Defense
+0.48
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#43
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#88
model 45 higher
Recruiting Rank
#55
model 12 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Washington State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
23th
Opp-adjusted defense
91th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
51th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
40th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Maryland2023OA -0.018 / +0.051similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, pass defense3842Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, rushing offense3643Washington2019OA -0.038 / +0.089similar: pass defense, havoc rate, rushing offense3504Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3495Mississippi State2022OA -0.072 / +0.130similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA348

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Utah State23-26L-17.0L67U
2vs Portland State44-24W----
3vs USC14-45L+8.5L62U
4@ Utah13-24L+15.0W53.5U
5@ California21-6W+7.5W52U
6vs Oregon State31-24W+3.5W59U
7vs Stanford34-31W+1.5W52.5O
8vs BYU19-21L+4.0W55.5U
9@ Arizona State34-21W+16.0W53O
11@ Oregon24-38L+14.0P56.5O
12vs Arizona44-18W-1.0W44O
13@ Washington40-13W----
18@ Central Michigan21-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-3-1
72.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS6-1
Last 5 ATS
WWPWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off19thRed Zone Off18th3rd Down Off63thPass Def62thRush Def83thRed Zone Def68th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03835th-0.07580th
Red Zone-0.17518th-0.12668th
Third Down+0.14063th+0.03461th
No Garbage Time-0.02837th-0.10487th
First Half-0.03137th-0.17895th
Second Half-0.04732th+0.01243th
Early Downs-0.06827th-0.10684th
Passing Downs+0.03861th-0.03862th
Standard Downs-0.08119th-0.09583th
Goal to Go-0.25519th-0.13066th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.8%Rush 47.2%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
377.9
Pts/Drive
2.32
3rd Down%
39.6%
3&Out%
19.1%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Washington State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWashington StateOpponents
Scoring
Points362315
Points / Game27.824.2
First Downs
Total263267
Rushing98122
Passing145128
Penalty2017
Rushing
Attempts404455
Yards1,5772,093
Yards / Carry3.94.6
Yards / Game121.3161.0
Touchdowns1920
Passing
Attempts452434
Completions281260
Completion %62.2%59.9%
Yards3,3362,818
Yards / Attempt7.46.5
Touchdowns2616
Interceptions1315
Passer Rating137.39119.70
Total Offense
Plays856889
Yards4,9134,911
Yards / Play5.75.5
Yards / Game377.9377.8
Punt Returns
Returns1517
Yards148157
Average9.99.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2531
Yards439707
Average17.622.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5651
Yards2,3422,284
Average41.844.8
Interception Returns
Returns1513
Yards183134
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1127
Lost514
Penalties
Penalties6975
Yards603569
Yards / Game46.443.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3329:25
Third Downs
Attempts169173
Conversions6766
Conversion %39.6%38.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2422
Conversions910
Conversion %37.5%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips5450
Scores (TD + FG)4336
Score %79.6%72.0%
Touchdowns3128
TD %57.4%56.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1721
Made1415
Pct82.4%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4432
Made4232
Pct95.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts26
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →