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WASH
Washington
HuskiesBalancedBig Ten Conference8-5#28 (+10.49)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
79· BOverall
Offense
52· CRating
54· CPer play
64· CConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
88· BRating
68· CPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.038
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.089
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.017
Defensive EPA/play
-0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.3%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.045
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.66
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.96
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#28
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#17
recruiting 11 spots higher
36 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Washington ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense37th
Opp-adjusted defense82th
Offensive EPA/play54th
Defensive EPA/play69th
Offensive success rate71th
Explosiveness40th
Defensive havoc35th
Points per drive82th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Notre Dame2026OA +0.038 / +0.037similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, turnover rate4232Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA3703Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, rushing offense3504Washington State2021OA -0.072 / +0.113similar: pass defense, havoc rate, rushing offense3505North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate348
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Eastern Washington | 47-14 | W | -3.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 2 | vs California | 19-20 | L | -13.5 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Hawai'i | 52-20 | W | -21.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 4 | @ BYU | 45-19 | W | -6.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 5 | vs USC | 28-14 | W | -12.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Stanford | 13-23 | L | -13.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 7 | @ Arizona | 51-27 | W | -6.0 | W | 60 | O |
| 8 | vs Oregon | 31-35 | L | +3.0 | L | 48 | O |
| 10 | vs Utah | 28-33 | L | +3.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 11 | @ Oregon State | 19-7 | W | -11.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Colorado | 14-20 | L | -14.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Washington State | 31-13 | W | -7.5 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 17 | vs Boise State | 38-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.009 | 51th | -0.039 | 68th |
| Red Zone | +0.042 | 66th | -0.104 | 71th |
| Third Down | -0.162 | 15th | -0.036 | 65th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.023 | 56th | -0.035 | 65th |
| First Half | +0.024 | 57th | -0.085 | 74th |
| Second Half | -0.006 | 45th | +0.011 | 46th |
| Early Downs | +0.033 | 66th | -0.061 | 77th |
| Passing Downs | -0.008 | 43th | -0.016 | 51th |
| Standard Downs | +0.017 | 59th | -0.050 | 73th |
| Goal to Go | +0.121 | 71th | -0.239 | 77th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.1%Rush 52.9%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
391.2
Pts/Drive
2.66
3rd Down%
35.7%
3&Out%
23.0%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Washington vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Washington | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 416 | 252 |
| Points / Game | 32.0 | 19.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 264 | 259 |
| Rushing | 109 | 106 |
| Passing | 139 | 130 |
| Penalty | 16 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 461 | 431 |
| Yards | 1,922 | 1,643 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 147.8 | 126.4 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 411 | 456 |
| Completions | 263 | 288 |
| Completion % | 64.0% | 63.2% |
| Yards | 3,164 | 2,889 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 144.03 | 120.08 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 872 | 887 |
| Yards | 5,086 | 4,532 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 391.2 | 348.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 9 |
| Yards | 268 | 44 |
| Average | 10.7 | 4.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 29 |
| Yards | 388 | 579 |
| Average | 22.8 | 20.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 50 | 65 |
| Yards | 2,231 | 2,512 |
| Average | 44.6 | 38.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 8 |
| Yards | 139 | 129 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 15 |
| Lost | 6 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 79 | 69 |
| Yards | 639 | 575 |
| Yards / Game | 49.2 | 44.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:07 | 29:53 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 171 | 180 |
| Conversions | 61 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 35.7% | 37.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 23 |
| Conversions | 23 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 71.9% | 60.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 49 | 34 |
| Score % | 90.7% | 79.1% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 21 |
| TD % | 61.1% | 48.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 18 |
| Made | 19 | 15 |
| Pct | 90.5% | 83.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 28 |
| Made | 49 | 27 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.