Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenBalanced
American Conference9-4#38 (+3.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

71· BOverall
Offense
72· BRating
63· CPer play
76· BConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
65· CPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.020
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.034
Defensive EPA/play
-0.054
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
43.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.088
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#38
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
38th
Opp-adjusted defense
42th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
77th
Explosiveness
62th
Defensive havoc
78th
Points per drive
79th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, run defense4452Clemson2025OA +0.079 / +0.044similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3953Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3894Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: turnover rate, pass defense, defensive success rate3885Arkansas State2018OA +0.033 / +0.059similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate388

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs SMU46-23W+7.0L67.5U
2vs Incarnate Word58-16W-43.5L79U
3@ Arkansas44-17W+5.5W64.5U
4@ Liberty47-7W-10.5W67.5U
5vs Louisiana Tech27-29L-7.0L62.5U
6@ UTEP27-24W-26.0L52.5U
7vs Southern Miss30-7W-7.0W52.5U
8@ UAB21-29L+1.5L53U
9vs Rice41-17W-30.0L58P
11@ Old Dominion31-34L-14.0L67U
12vs Florida Atlantic41-38W-4.5L63.5O
13@ UTSA24-21W-25.0L51.5U
16vs Utah State13-52L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
1-10-1
9.1%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-7
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off54thRush Off57thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off52thPass Def65thRush Def61thRed Zone Def88th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01755th-0.04867th
Red Zone-0.07429th-0.18588th
Third Down+0.05952th-0.01061th
No Garbage Time+0.03061th-0.06468th
First Half+0.02054th-0.08071th
Second Half+0.01352th-0.01256th
Early Downs+0.06075th-0.06066th
Passing Downs+0.01554th-0.06765th
Standard Downs+0.01757th-0.03861th
Goal to Go-0.15018th-0.00165th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.2%Rush 47.8%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
21.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
460.5
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
20.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points450314
Points / Game34.624.2
First Downs
Total321245
Rushing10887
Passing182136
Penalty3122
Rushing
Attempts462447
Yards1,9991,558
Yards / Carry4.33.5
Yards / Game153.8119.8
Touchdowns2520
Passing
Attempts504468
Completions321248
Completion %63.7%53.0%
Yards3,9883,312
Yards / Attempt7.97.1
Touchdowns2818
Interceptions918
Passer Rating144.92117.44
Total Offense
Plays966915
Yards5,9874,870
Yards / Play6.25.3
Yards / Game460.5374.6
Punt Returns
Returns1710
Yards19691
Average11.59.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2337
Yards545735
Average23.719.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5880
Yards2,3873,148
Average41.239.4
Interception Returns
Returns189
Yards17793
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles2011
Lost84
Penalties
Penalties5776
Yards644734
Yards / Game49.556.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3028:30
Third Downs
Attempts177197
Conversions6669
Conversion %37.3%35.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2420
Conversions109
Conversion %41.7%45.0%
Red Zone
Trips6045
Scores (TD + FG)5235
Score %86.7%77.8%
Touchdowns3823
TD %63.3%51.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2221
Made1915
Pct86.4%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5436
Made5135
Pct94.4%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →