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Louisiana Tech

BulldogsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference10-3#86 (-4.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

36· DOverall
Offense
14· FRating
58· CPer play
76· BConsistency
64· CBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
89· BPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
49· C3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.057
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.033
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.030
Defensive EPA/play
-0.125
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.2%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.155
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.105
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.85
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#86
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
28th
Opp-adjusted defense
63th
Offensive EPA/play
58th
Defensive EPA/play
90th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
64th
Defensive havoc
54th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Fresno State2018OA +0.015 / +0.140similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4062Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3953Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3904North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3895Florida Atlantic2019OA +0.030 / +0.087similar: passing offense, rushing offense, takeaway rate389

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas14-45L+7.0W49.5U
2vs Grambling State20-14W-30.5L52U
3@ Bowling Green35-7W-12.5W59U
4vs Florida International43-31W-7.0W51.5O
5@ Rice23-20W-9.0L48.5U
7vs Massachusetts69-21W-31.5W64.5O
8vs Southern Miss45-30W+3.0W58.5O
9@ UTEP42-21W-18.5W50O
11vs North Texas52-17W-6.0W72.5U
12@ Marshall10-31L+6.5L54.5U
13@ UAB14-20L+6.5W44.5U
14vs UTSA41-27W-21.0L57O
18@ Miami14-0W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off42thRush Off75thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off49thPass Def87thRush Def78thRed Zone Def93th3rd Down Def94th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03657th-0.09482th
Red Zone+0.01258th-0.32793th
Third Down+0.01849th-0.21794th
No Garbage Time+0.02958th-0.11786th
First Half+0.04764th-0.12184th
Second Half+0.02554th-0.06777th
Early Downs+0.08182th-0.05675th
Passing Downs-0.00942th-0.14187th
Standard Downs+0.05975th-0.07178th
Goal to Go+0.21282th-0.64095th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.1%Rush 50.9%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
436.8
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
19.0%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Louisiana Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisiana TechOpponents
Scoring
Points422284
Points / Game32.521.8
First Downs
Total304269
Rushing11997
Passing158153
Penalty2719
Rushing
Attempts475478
Yards2,1891,784
Yards / Carry4.63.7
Yards / Game168.4137.2
Touchdowns2719
Passing
Attempts458463
Completions285278
Completion %62.2%60.0%
Yards3,4903,126
Yards / Attempt7.66.8
Touchdowns2114
Interceptions1017
Passer Rating137.00119.39
Total Offense
Plays933941
Yards5,6794,910
Yards / Play6.15.2
Yards / Game436.8377.7
Punt Returns
Returns1314
Yards70128
Average5.49.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3357
Yards7271,171
Average22.020.5
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts6067
Yards2,2472,700
Average37.540.3
Interception Returns
Returns1710
Yards23770
Touchdowns50
Fumbles
Fumbles2322
Lost99
Penalties
Penalties7277
Yards605696
Yards / Game46.553.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4429:16
Third Downs
Attempts174195
Conversions7268
Conversion %41.4%34.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1631
Conversions615
Conversion %37.5%48.4%
Red Zone
Trips4951
Scores (TD + FG)4333
Score %87.8%64.7%
Touchdowns3324
TD %67.3%47.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1820
Made1513
Pct83.3%65.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5335
Made5335
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →