Fourth Down Data
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Florida Atlantic

OwlsBalanced
American Conference11-3#32 (+9.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
67· CRating
64· CPer play
46· CConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
84· BPer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.087
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.042
Defensive EPA/play
-0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
41.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.082
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.83
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.54
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.23
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#32
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 43 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida Atlantic ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
63th
Opp-adjusted defense
81th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
85th
Offensive success rate
51th
Explosiveness
75th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense4122South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4123Houston2021OA +0.063 / +0.097similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3984Oregon2019OA +0.082 / +0.145similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3965Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: passing offense, rushing offense, takeaway rate389

2019 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Ohio State21-45L+7.0W63.5O
2vs UCF14-48L+13.5L69U
3@ Ball State41-31W-2.5W64.5O
4vs Wagner42-7W-37.5L55.5U
5@ Charlotte45-27W-2.5W63.5O
7vs Middle Tennessee28-13W-12.0W63.5U
8vs Marshall31-36L-3.5L58.5O
9@ Old Dominion41-3W-13.5W50.5U
10@ Western Kentucky35-24W0.0W51O
11vs Florida International37-7W-12.5W59U
13@ UTSA40-26W-22.0L57.5O
14vs Southern Miss34-17W-9.0W58U
15vs UAB49-6W-8.0W49.5O
17vs SMU52-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off36thRed Zone Off75th3rd Down Off82thPass Def95thRush Def54thRed Zone Def40th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04160th-0.09079th
Red Zone+0.11975th+0.03140th
Third Down+0.19482th-0.08872th
No Garbage Time+0.04564th-0.11284th
First Half+0.00449th-0.08877th
Second Half+0.08175th-0.09385th
Early Downs-0.05029th-0.03767th
Passing Downs+0.14981th-0.21795th
Standard Downs-0.02336th-0.01254th
Goal to Go+0.13874th+0.06135th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.7%Rush 52.3%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
19.5%
TO Margin
+1.5
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
448.6
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
40.3%
3&Out%
21.3%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 14 games — Florida Atlantic vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida AtlanticOpponents
Scoring
Points510318
Points / Game36.422.7
First Downs
Total330272
Rushing12494
Passing181145
Penalty2533
Rushing
Attempts551498
Yards2,3241,897
Yards / Carry4.23.8
Yards / Game166.0135.5
Touchdowns3217
Passing
Attempts502481
Completions314281
Completion %62.5%58.4%
Yards3,9563,342
Yards / Attempt7.96.9
Touchdowns3023
Interceptions822
Passer Rating145.28123.42
Total Offense
Plays1,053979
Yards6,2805,239
Yards / Play6.05.4
Yards / Game448.6374.2
Punt Returns
Returns2114
Yards114125
Average5.48.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2145
Yards406798
Average19.317.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6984
Yards2,9583,349
Average42.939.9
Interception Returns
Returns228
Yards22177
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1423
Lost411
Penalties
Penalties9596
Yards852834
Yards / Game60.959.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5630:45
Third Downs
Attempts201201
Conversions8163
Conversion %40.3%31.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2228
Conversions1313
Conversion %59.1%46.4%
Red Zone
Trips6840
Scores (TD + FG)6230
Score %91.2%75.0%
Touchdowns4523
TD %66.2%57.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2614
Made1810
Pct69.2%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6037
Made5634
Pct93.3%91.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made43
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →