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FRES
Fresno State
BulldogsBalancedPac-12 Conference12-2#12 (+9.22)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
91· A-Overall
Offense
74· BRating
73· BPer play
78· BConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
94· APer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
77· BRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
24· D3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.140
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.057
Defensive EPA/play
-0.185
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
42.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.242
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.154
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.57
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#12
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#18
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
model 44 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense54th
Opp-adjusted defense92th
Offensive EPA/play73th
Defensive EPA/play95th
Offensive success rate81th
Explosiveness31th
Defensive havoc56th
Points per drive79th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4182Miami2025OA +0.143 / +0.197similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, takeaway rate4163Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4064Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3945Cincinnati2021OA +0.017 / +0.150similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA387
2018 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Idaho | 79-13 | W | -6.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 2 | @ Minnesota | 14-21 | L | - | - | 50.5 | U |
| 3 | @ UCLA | 38-14 | W | -2.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Toledo | 49-27 | W | -10.0 | W | 61 | O |
| 6 | @ Nevada | 21-3 | W | -15.0 | W | 59 | U |
| 7 | vs Wyoming | 27-3 | W | -17.5 | W | 44 | U |
| 8 | @ New Mexico | 38-7 | W | -14.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Hawai'i | 50-20 | W | -24.5 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 10 | @ UNLV | 48-3 | W | -27.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Boise State | 17-24 | L | -2.5 | L | 56 | U |
| 12 | vs San Diego State | 23-14 | W | -13.0 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | vs San José State | 31-13 | W | -31.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 14 | @ Boise State | 19-16 | W | +2.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 16 | vs Arizona State | 31-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
3-10
23.1%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS8-3
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.050 | 70th | -0.161 | 95th |
| Red Zone | +0.133 | 78th | -0.286 | 93th |
| Third Down | -0.078 | 24th | -0.036 | 67th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.058 | 75th | -0.186 | 95th |
| First Half | +0.029 | 61th | -0.146 | 86th |
| Second Half | +0.071 | 72th | -0.177 | 96th |
| Early Downs | +0.078 | 83th | -0.164 | 98th |
| Passing Downs | -0.016 | 42th | -0.106 | 75th |
| Standard Downs | +0.078 | 80th | -0.193 | 98th |
| Goal to Go | +0.143 | 66th | -1.057 | 100th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
421.5
Pts/Drive
2.57
3rd Down%
44.6%
3&Out%
17.9%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 14 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Fresno State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 485 | 198 |
| Points / Game | 34.6 | 14.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 282 | 249 |
| Rushing | 105 | 106 |
| Passing | 159 | 124 |
| Penalty | 18 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 501 | 507 |
| Yards | 2,161 | 1,851 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 154.4 | 132.2 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 8 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 440 | 446 |
| Completions | 301 | 231 |
| Completion % | 68.4% | 51.8% |
| Yards | 3,740 | 2,652 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.5 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 19 |
| Passer Rating | 156.58 | 104.32 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 941 | 953 |
| Yards | 5,901 | 4,503 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 421.5 | 321.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 12 |
| Yards | 138 | 42 |
| Average | 7.7 | 3.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 52 |
| Yards | 487 | 1,051 |
| Average | 20.3 | 20.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 65 | 86 |
| Yards | 2,745 | 3,654 |
| Average | 42.2 | 42.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 6 |
| Yards | 435 | 18 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 12 |
| Lost | 8 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 70 |
| Yards | 613 | 575 |
| Yards / Game | 43.8 | 41.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:41 | 29:19 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 184 | 214 |
| Conversions | 82 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 44.6% | 34.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 26 |
| Conversions | 7 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 70.0% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 57 | 27 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 52 | 18 |
| Score % | 91.2% | 66.7% |
| Touchdowns | 42 | 12 |
| TD % | 73.7% | 44.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 21 |
| Made | 14 | 13 |
| Pct | 63.6% | 61.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 62 | 21 |
| Made | 57 | 19 |
| Pct | 91.9% | 90.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.