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CIN
Cincinnati
BearcatsBalancedBig 12 Conference13-1#5 (+12.90)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
96· AOverall
Offense
83· BRating
70· BPer play
89· BConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
96· APer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
16· D3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.150
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.056
Defensive EPA/play
-0.185
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.0%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.241
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.141
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.80
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.83
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.81
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.43
own return game
Return Defense
+1.55
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#5
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#4
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#5
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#55
model 50 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense57th
Opp-adjusted defense95th
Offensive EPA/play71th
Defensive EPA/play97th
Offensive success rate91th
Explosiveness59th
Defensive havoc85th
Points per drive86th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Notre Dame2024OA +0.053 / +0.098similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4242Fresno State2018OA +0.015 / +0.140similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3873Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense3824Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3585Oregon2019OA +0.082 / +0.145similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, pass defense358
2021 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Miami (OH) | 49-14 | W | -23.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Murray State | 42-7 | W | -36.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Indiana | 38-24 | W | -4.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Notre Dame | 24-13 | W | -29.0 | W | 54 | O |
| 6 | vs Temple | 52-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs UCF | 56-21 | W | -20.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 8 | @ Navy | 27-20 | W | -27.5 | L | 49 | U |
| 9 | @ Tulane | 31-12 | W | -26.0 | L | 62 | U |
| 10 | vs Tulsa | 28-20 | W | -23.5 | L | 58 | O |
| 11 | @ South Florida | 45-28 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs SMU | 48-14 | W | -14.0 | W | 58 | U |
| 13 | @ East Carolina | 35-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | vs Houston | 35-20 | W | -10.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 18 | @ Alabama | 6-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
13-1
92.9%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS8-5
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.057 | 71th | -0.117 | 90th |
| Red Zone | +0.133 | 83th | -0.245 | 91th |
| Third Down | -0.125 | 16th | +0.035 | 60th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.057 | 71th | -0.172 | 96th |
| First Half | +0.062 | 71th | -0.170 | 94th |
| Second Half | +0.051 | 73th | -0.064 | 69th |
| Early Downs | +0.133 | 96th | -0.077 | 75th |
| Passing Downs | -0.164 | 14th | -0.258 | 96th |
| Standard Downs | +0.148 | 95th | -0.032 | 57th |
| Goal to Go | -0.004 | 57th | -0.431 | 89th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.3%Rush 53.7%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
413.9
Pts/Drive
2.80
3rd Down%
39.5%
3&Out%
20.1%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 14 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 516 | 236 |
| Points / Game | 36.9 | 16.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 278 | 268 |
| Rushing | 122 | 124 |
| Passing | 141 | 120 |
| Penalty | 15 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 463 | 583 |
| Yards | 2,417 | 2,088 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.2 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 172.6 | 149.1 |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 400 | 413 |
| Completions | 257 | 223 |
| Completion % | 64.3% | 54.0% |
| Yards | 3,377 | 2,369 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.4 | 5.7 |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 19 |
| Passer Rating | 157.89 | 103.36 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 863 | 996 |
| Yards | 5,794 | 4,457 |
| Yards / Play | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 413.9 | 318.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 17 |
| Yards | 224 | 26 |
| Average | 10.7 | 1.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 32 |
| Yards | 667 | 579 |
| Average | 23.0 | 18.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 50 | 71 |
| Yards | 2,147 | 2,813 |
| Average | 42.9 | 39.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 9 |
| Yards | 214 | 127 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 24 |
| Lost | 10 | 15 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 101 | 91 |
| Yards | 754 | 684 |
| Yards / Game | 53.9 | 48.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:10 | 32:50 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 157 | 209 |
| Conversions | 62 | 71 |
| Conversion % | 39.5% | 34.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 37 |
| Conversions | 12 | 19 |
| Conversion % | 63.2% | 51.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 63 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 29 |
| Score % | 79.4% | 69.0% |
| Touchdowns | 42 | 23 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 54.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 19 |
| Made | 9 | 13 |
| Pct | 47.4% | 68.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 69 | 27 |
| Made | 67 | 25 |
| Pct | 97.1% | 92.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.