← All Teams
ARST
Arkansas State
Red WolvesBalancedSun Belt Conference8-5#58 (+1.95)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
56· COverall
Offense
49· CRating
65· CPer play
72· BConsistency
91· A-Big plays
Defense
68· CRating
76· BPer play
88· BConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.033
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.043
Defensive EPA/play
-0.086
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.128
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.26
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.36
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#58
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 19 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense63th
Opp-adjusted defense70th
Offensive EPA/play66th
Defensive EPA/play77th
Offensive success rate64th
Explosiveness92th
Defensive havoc88th
Points per drive56th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3892Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: pass defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate3893North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3884Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate3835Florida Atlantic2019OA +0.030 / +0.087similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense376
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Southeast Missouri State | 48-21 | W | +1.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Alabama | 7-57 | L | +36.5 | L | 63 | O |
| 3 | @ Tulsa | 29-20 | W | +2.0 | W | 71 | U |
| 4 | vs UNLV | 27-20 | W | -8.0 | L | 66.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Georgia Southern | 21-28 | L | -3.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 7 | vs App State | 9-35 | L | +10.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Georgia State | 51-35 | W | -13.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Louisiana | 43-47 | L | -3.0 | L | 69 | O |
| 10 | vs South Alabama | 38-14 | W | -14.0 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Coastal Carolina | 44-16 | W | -6.5 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 12 | vs UL Monroe | 31-17 | W | -7.5 | W | 68 | U |
| 13 | @ Texas State | 33-7 | W | -13.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 18 | @ Nevada | 13-16 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.021 | 57th | -0.047 | 66th |
| Red Zone | -0.045 | 33th | -0.002 | 52th |
| Third Down | +0.024 | 43th | +0.056 | 42th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.036 | 65th | -0.068 | 69th |
| First Half | +0.025 | 58th | -0.067 | 67th |
| Second Half | +0.016 | 55th | -0.029 | 61th |
| Early Downs | +0.068 | 80th | -0.031 | 56th |
| Passing Downs | +0.034 | 61th | -0.078 | 67th |
| Standard Downs | +0.014 | 55th | -0.028 | 55th |
| Goal to Go | -0.102 | 25th | +0.407 | 5th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
22.7%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
17.2
Yards/Game
466.2
Pts/Drive
2.26
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
23.3%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 394 | 333 |
| Points / Game | 30.3 | 25.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 300 | 232 |
| Rushing | 122 | 119 |
| Passing | 156 | 88 |
| Penalty | 22 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 508 | 524 |
| Yards | 2,402 | 2,493 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 184.8 | 191.8 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 472 | 338 |
| Completions | 303 | 193 |
| Completion % | 64.2% | 57.1% |
| Yards | 3,659 | 2,311 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 144.65 | 129.89 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 980 | 862 |
| Yards | 6,061 | 4,804 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 466.2 | 369.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 8 |
| Yards | 252 | -15 |
| Average | 7.9 | -1.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 49 |
| Yards | 689 | 803 |
| Average | 21.5 | 16.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 79 |
| Yards | 2,599 | 3,480 |
| Average | 40.6 | 44.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 10 |
| Yards | 145 | 104 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 22 |
| Lost | 6 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 99 | 82 |
| Yards | 865 | 759 |
| Yards / Game | 66.5 | 58.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:07 | 29:53 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 200 | 187 |
| Conversions | 80 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 35.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 22 |
| Conversions | 16 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 53.3% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 50 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 29 |
| Score % | 82.0% | 78.4% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 24 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 64.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 10 |
| Made | 14 | 8 |
| Pct | 60.9% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 46 | 41 |
| Made | 42 | 39 |
| Pct | 91.3% | 95.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 3 |
| Made | 3 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.