Fourth Down Data
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USF

South Florida

BullsBalanced
American Conference7-6#95 (-3.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

30· DOverall
Offense
45· CRating
48· CPer play
34· DConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
17· DRating
21· DPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
9· FRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.008
Defensive EPA/play
+0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.003
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#95
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#92
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 19 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
45th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
48th
Defensive EPA/play
21th
Offensive success rate
35th
Explosiveness
54th
Defensive havoc
62th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Houston2017OA -0.079 / +0.046similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3842California2023OA -0.024 / -0.003similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, passing offense3473Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3444Temple2018OA +0.045 / +0.017similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3385Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate328

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Western Kentucky24-41L+11.5L70.5U
2vs Florida A&M38-24W-19.0L58.5O
3vs Alabama3-17L+33.0W61U
4vs Rice42-29W+2.5W58O
5@ Navy44-30W+3.3W54.5O
6@ UAB35-56L-3.5L68.5O
7vs Florida Atlantic14-56L-2.5L59O
8@ UConn24-21W-2.5W54.5U
10@ Memphis50-59L+13.5W68.5O
11vs Temple27-23W+16.0L67O
12@ UTSA21-49L----
13vs Charlotte48-14W-5.5W56.5O
17@ Syracuse45-0W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off53thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off59thPass Def65thRush Def24thRed Zone Def9th3rd Down Def70th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01753th+0.03736th
Red Zone+0.03057th+0.2259th
Third Down+0.22659th+0.09870th
No Garbage Time+0.00951th+0.04633th
First Half+0.04860th+0.04836th
Second Half-0.01444th+0.02440th
Early Downs-0.01856th+0.06312th
Passing Downs+0.05552th-0.00765th
Standard Downs-0.00753th+0.06424th
Goal to Go+0.30091th+0.16927th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
19.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
451.6
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
37.7%
3&Out%
17.4%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points415419
Points / Game31.932.2
First Downs
Total300274
Rushing138103
Passing134141
Penalty2830
Rushing
Attempts580460
Yards2,3771,868
Yards / Carry4.14.1
Yards / Game182.8143.7
Touchdowns2326
Passing
Attempts448466
Completions287279
Completion %64.1%59.9%
Yards3,4943,754
Yards / Attempt7.88.1
Touchdowns2729
Interceptions1114
Passer Rating144.55142.07
Total Offense
Plays1,028926
Yards5,8715,622
Yards / Play5.76.1
Yards / Game451.6432.5
Punt Returns
Returns1811
Yards9291
Average5.18.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2137
Yards414655
Average19.717.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5664
Yards2,2922,560
Average40.940.0
Interception Returns
Returns1411
Yards17529
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1714
Lost1010
Penalties
Penalties9795
Yards852782
Yards / Game65.560.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3431:12
Third Downs
Attempts207183
Conversions7860
Conversion %37.7%32.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4633
Conversions2017
Conversion %43.5%51.5%
Red Zone
Trips5644
Scores (TD + FG)4137
Score %73.2%84.1%
Touchdowns3633
TD %64.3%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1614
Made117
Pct68.8%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5255
Made5254
Pct100.0%98.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →