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MEM
Memphis
TigersBalancedAmerican Conference8-3#62 (+0.49)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
52· COverall
Offense
53· CRating
56· CPer play
22· DConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
49· CPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.037
Defensive EPA/play
+0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
46.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.011
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.051
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.90
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
+0.26
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#62
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#32
market 30 higher
Recruiting Rank
#34
recruiting 28 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense56th
Opp-adjusted defense49th
Offensive EPA/play57th
Defensive EPA/play50th
Offensive success rate20th
Explosiveness73th
Defensive havoc40th
Points per drive61th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wake Forest2019OA -0.003 / -0.009similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, TD drive rate4092Houston2017OA -0.079 / +0.046similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3913UNLV2023OA +0.047 / -0.015similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3714Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3655Texas Tech2022OA +0.017 / +0.036similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense355
2020 Schedule & Results
11 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Arkansas State | 37-24 | W | -19.0 | L | 74 | U |
| 5 | @ SMU | 27-30 | L | 0.0 | L | 74.5 | U |
| 7 | vs UCF | 50-49 | W | +3.5 | W | 73.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Temple | 41-29 | W | -13.5 | L | 70 | P |
| 9 | @ Cincinnati | 10-49 | L | +6.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 10 | vs South Florida | 34-33 | W | -18.0 | L | 64.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Stephen F. Austin | 56-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ Navy | 10-7 | W | -13.5 | L | 62.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Tulane | 21-35 | L | +1.5 | L | 63 | U |
| 15 | vs Houston | 30-27 | W | +5.0 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 17 | @ Florida Atlantic | 25-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-7
30.0%
O/U Record
3-6-1
33.3%
Straight Up
8-3
72.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.033 | 58th | +0.026 | 50th |
| Red Zone | +0.125 | 76th | -0.180 | 88th |
| Third Down | +0.311 | 86th | +0.012 | 62th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.039 | 59th | +0.019 | 51th |
| First Half | -0.009 | 45th | +0.039 | 43th |
| Second Half | +0.074 | 68th | +0.013 | 55th |
| Early Downs | -0.030 | 38th | -0.007 | 58th |
| Passing Downs | +0.137 | 70th | +0.076 | 43th |
| Standard Downs | -0.025 | 39th | -0.001 | 60th |
| Goal to Go | +0.380 | 87th | -0.062 | 66th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.6%Rush 48.4%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
18.5
Yards/Game
453.1
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
44.8%
3&Out%
16.5%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 11 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Memphis | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 341 | 307 |
| Points / Game | 31.0 | 27.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 260 | 250 |
| Rushing | 95 | 93 |
| Passing | 135 | 143 |
| Penalty | 30 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 396 | 413 |
| Yards | 1,597 | 1,596 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 145.2 | 145.1 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 423 | 428 |
| Completions | 255 | 269 |
| Completion % | 60.3% | 62.9% |
| Yards | 3,387 | 3,181 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 147.00 | 138.18 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 819 | 841 |
| Yards | 4,984 | 4,777 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 453.1 | 434.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 9 |
| Yards | 188 | 53 |
| Average | 9.0 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 19 |
| Yards | 484 | 331 |
| Average | 17.9 | 17.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 44 | 49 |
| Yards | 1,873 | 2,053 |
| Average | 42.6 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 10 |
| Yards | 58 | 128 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 16 |
| Lost | 9 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 61 | 64 |
| Yards | 520 | 598 |
| Yards / Game | 47.3 | 54.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:48 | 30:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 172 | 161 |
| Conversions | 77 | 58 |
| Conversion % | 44.8% | 36.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 33 |
| Conversions | 14 | 22 |
| Conversion % | 58.3% | 66.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 32 |
| Score % | 86.7% | 74.4% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 25 |
| TD % | 71.1% | 58.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 16 |
| Made | 15 | 12 |
| Pct | 68.2% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 35 |
| Made | 36 | 33 |
| Pct | 97.3% | 94.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 4 |
| Made | 4 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.