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WAKE
Wake Forest
Demon DeaconsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference8-5#61 (+1.19)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
55· COverall
Offense
53· CRating
61· CPer play
43· CConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
61· CRating
47· CPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.038
Defensive EPA/play
+0.004
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.5%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.034
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.015
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.33
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.61
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.24
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#61
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 3 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense50th
Opp-adjusted defense47th
Offensive EPA/play61th
Defensive EPA/play47th
Offensive success rate34th
Explosiveness26th
Defensive havoc65th
Points per drive60th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Memphis2020OA +0.003 / -0.004similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, TD drive rate4092Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, run defense3963Utah State2021OA +0.074 / +0.009similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3764Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3735Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, takeaway rate364
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Utah State | 38-35 | W | +4.0 | L | 51 | U |
| 2 | @ Rice | 41-21 | W | -20.0 | P | 59.5 | O |
| 3 | vs North Carolina | 24-18 | W | -3.0 | W | 65 | U |
| 4 | vs Elon | 49-7 | W | -29.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Boston College | 27-24 | W | -4.5 | L | 69 | U |
| 7 | vs Louisville | 59-62 | L | -7.0 | L | 65 | O |
| 8 | vs Florida State | 22-20 | W | +3.0 | W | 69 | U |
| 10 | vs NC State | 44-10 | W | -8.5 | W | 61 | U |
| 11 | @ Virginia Tech | 17-36 | L | -3.0 | L | 61 | U |
| 12 | @ Clemson | 3-52 | L | +34.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Duke | 39-27 | W | -7.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Syracuse | 30-39 | L | -6.5 | L | 68 | O |
| 18 | vs Michigan State | 21-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS0-4
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.015 | 54th | -0.004 | 53th |
| Red Zone | -0.077 | 38th | -0.081 | 68th |
| Third Down | +0.149 | 75th | -0.134 | 83th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.034 | 60th | +0.004 | 49th |
| First Half | -0.005 | 45th | -0.033 | 57th |
| Second Half | +0.038 | 59th | +0.027 | 38th |
| Early Downs | +0.022 | 58th | +0.018 | 44th |
| Passing Downs | +0.058 | 60th | +0.032 | 43th |
| Standard Downs | -0.009 | 46th | -0.024 | 64th |
| Goal to Go | -0.239 | 23th | -0.166 | 66th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
464.0
Pts/Drive
2.33
3rd Down%
47.2%
3&Out%
18.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Wake Forest | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 414 | 378 |
| Points / Game | 31.8 | 29.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 307 | 272 |
| Rushing | 121 | 109 |
| Passing | 164 | 149 |
| Penalty | 22 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 586 | 502 |
| Yards | 2,284 | 2,128 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 175.7 | 163.7 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 469 | 434 |
| Completions | 282 | 270 |
| Completion % | 60.1% | 62.2% |
| Yards | 3,748 | 3,286 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 26 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 143.52 | 139.13 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,055 | 936 |
| Yards | 6,032 | 5,414 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 464.0 | 416.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 20 |
| Yards | 211 | 313 |
| Average | 8.1 | 15.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 41 |
| Yards | 424 | 1,039 |
| Average | 19.3 | 25.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 75 | 77 |
| Yards | 3,510 | 3,391 |
| Average | 46.8 | 44.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 13 |
| Yards | 10 | 89 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 23 |
| Lost | 4 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 57 | 84 |
| Yards | 460 | 737 |
| Yards / Game | 35.4 | 56.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:19 | 29:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 229 | 192 |
| Conversions | 108 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 47.2% | 31.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 24 |
| Conversions | 7 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 41.2% | 62.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 57 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 43 |
| Score % | 87.7% | 84.3% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 30 |
| TD % | 54.4% | 58.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 19 |
| Made | 24 | 17 |
| Pct | 96.0% | 89.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 43 |
| Made | 48 | 43 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.