Fourth Down Data
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USU

Utah State

AggiesBalanced
Pac-12 Conference11-3#26 (+5.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
78· BRating
66· CPer play
41· CConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
68· CPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
93· ARed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.074
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.050
Defensive EPA/play
-0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.103
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.021
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.48

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.22
own return game
Return Defense
+0.67
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#80
model 54 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 46 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
75th
Opp-adjusted defense
51th
Offensive EPA/play
66th
Defensive EPA/play
68th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
86th
Points per drive
67th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2019OA -0.003 / -0.009similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3762Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: offensive success rate, run defense, takeaway rate3653Arkansas State2017OA -0.029 / +0.016similar: offensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate3414SMU2024OA +0.018 / +0.063similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate3415New Mexico2025OA -0.009 / +0.001similar: run defense, pass defense, havoc rate331

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Washington State26-23W+17.0W67U
2vs North Dakota48-24W----
3@ Air Force49-45W+14.3W61.5O
4vs Boise State3-27L+9.5L69.5U
5vs BYU20-34L----
7@ UNLV28-24W+3.5W58.5U
8vs Colorado State26-24W----
9vs Hawai'i51-31W-5.5W65O
10@ New Mexico State35-13W-18.5W71U
11@ San José State48-17W+4.5W56.5O
12vs Wyoming17-44L-5.5L52.5O
13@ New Mexico35-10W----
14@ San Diego State46-13W+6.0W49.5O
16@ Oregon State24-13W+7.0W68U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS7-1
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS6-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off49thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off99thPass Def41thRush Def77thRed Zone Def94th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03963th-0.04968th
Red Zone-0.17020th-0.33794th
Third Down+0.46599th-0.01868th
No Garbage Time+0.05269th-0.05065th
First Half+0.02652th-0.02258th
Second Half+0.05374th-0.08178th
Early Downs-0.02840th-0.08677th
Passing Downs+0.09881th+0.02141th
Standard Downs+0.00449th-0.08777th
Goal to Go-0.13535th-0.63198th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.2%Rush 52.8%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
17.6
Yards/Game
449.1
Pts/Drive
2.48
3rd Down%
44.4%
3&Out%
18.2%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtah StateOpponents
Scoring
Points456342
Points / Game32.624.4
First Downs
Total332286
Rushing114117
Passing178145
Penalty4024
Rushing
Attempts563516
Yards2,0402,265
Yards / Carry3.64.4
Yards / Game145.7161.8
Touchdowns1320
Passing
Attempts503430
Completions303268
Completion %60.2%62.3%
Yards4,2483,224
Yards / Attempt8.47.5
Touchdowns4116
Interceptions1512
Passer Rating152.11132.00
Total Offense
Plays1,066946
Yards6,2885,489
Yards / Play5.95.8
Yards / Game449.1392.1
Punt Returns
Returns1715
Yards8165
Average4.84.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4039
Yards904781
Average22.620.0
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts5363
Yards2,2512,583
Average42.541.0
Interception Returns
Returns1215
Yards112240
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1624
Lost811
Penalties
Penalties85113
Yards7481,056
Yards / Game53.475.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1630:44
Third Downs
Attempts223182
Conversions9963
Conversion %44.4%34.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3020
Conversions165
Conversion %53.3%25.0%
Red Zone
Trips5451
Scores (TD + FG)4241
Score %77.8%80.4%
Touchdowns2823
TD %51.9%45.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2930
Made2023
Pct69.0%76.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5437
Made5237
Pct96.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →