Arkansas State Red Wolves Football Analytics

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ARST

Arkansas State

Red WolvesBalanced

Sun Belt Conference7-5#86 (-3.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

36· DOverall

Offense

33· DRating

66· CPer play

68· CConsistency

74· BBig plays

Defense

42· CRating

73· BPer play

80· BConsistency

Situational

7· FRed-zone O

49· CRed-zone D

54· C3rd down O

80· B3rd down D

How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

-0.029

Opp-Adj Defense

+0.016

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.025

Defensive EPA/play

-0.107

lower = better

Off Success Rate

47.2%

Def Success Rate

41.5%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

25.0%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

22.4%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

+0.132

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

+0.091

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

2.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+1.14

expected pts/game

Kicking

-0.17

own kicking game

Kick Defense

+1.30

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+0.07

own return game

Return Defense

-0.06

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#86

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

NR

—

Market (Vegas)

—

unavailable

Recruiting Rank

#75

recruiting 11 spots higher

0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

41th

Opp-adjusted defense

58th

Offensive EPA/play

66th

Defensive EPA/play

74th

Offensive success rate

65th

Explosiveness

74th

Defensive havoc

91th

Points per drive

76th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Pittsburgh2025OA -0.006 / +0.103similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense388 2USC2020OA +0.012 / +0.025similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, turnover rate375 3Georgia2020OA +0.011 / +0.032similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense375 4Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate372 5Toledo2020OA +0.030 / +0.027similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate370

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	@ Nebraska	36-43	L	-3.0	L	60.5	O
3	vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	48-3	W	-55.0	L	-	-
4	@ SMU	21-44	L	+2.5	L	72.5	U
6	@ Georgia Southern	43-25	W	-8.5	W	54	O
7	vs Coastal Carolina	51-17	W	-14.5	W	65	O
8	vs Louisiana	47-3	W	-12.0	W	66.5	U
9	@ New Mexico State	37-21	W	-3.5	W	71.5	U
11	@ South Alabama	19-24	L	-12.5	L	56	U
12	vs Texas State	30-12	W	-27.0	L	59.5	U
13	@ UL Monroe	67-50	W	-8.5	W	69	O
14	vs Troy	25-32	L	+1.0	L	60	U
16	vs Middle Tennessee	30-35	L	-	-	-	-

Betting Profile

ATS Record

5-6

45.5%

O/U Record

4-6

40.0%

Straight Up

7-4

63.6%

Home ATS2-4

Away ATS3-2

Favorite ATS5-4

Underdog ATS0-2

Last 5 ATS

WLLWL

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	+0.009	61th	-0.133	80th
Red Zone	-0.239	7th	+0.009	50th
Third Down	+0.017	54th	-0.220	80th
No Garbage Time	+0.025	63th	-0.105	74th
First Half	-0.017	50th	-0.107	71th
Second Half	+0.035	72th	-0.160	86th
Early Downs	+0.042	75th	-0.031	56th
Passing Downs	-0.009	55th	-0.226	93th
Standard Downs	+0.018	64th	-0.074	66th
Goal to Go	-0.206	23th	-0.126	65th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.5%Rush 47.5%

Havoc/Game

17.5

Havoc Rate

23.6%

TO Margin

-0.1

Explosive/G

18.4

Yards/Game

494.8

Pts/Drive

2.45

3rd Down%

44.4%

3&Out%

14.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Arkansas State	Opponents
Scoring
Points	454	309
Points / Game	37.8	25.8
First Downs
Total	322	233
Rushing	105	88
Passing	190	120
Penalty	27	25
Rushing
Attempts	463	460
Yards	1,831	1,633
Yards / Carry	4.0	3.5
Yards / Game	152.6	136.1
Touchdowns	17	17
Passing
Attempts	512	397
Completions	317	204
Completion %	61.9%	51.4%
Yards	4,106	2,897
Yards / Attempt	8.0	7.3
Touchdowns	38	18
Interceptions	17	14
Passer Rating	147.13	120.59
Total Offense
Plays	975	857
Yards	5,937	4,530
Yards / Play	6.1	5.3
Yards / Game	494.8	377.5
Punt Returns
Returns	27	4
Yards	370	8
Average	13.7	2.0
Touchdowns	1	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	35	49
Yards	676	1,048
Average	19.3	21.4
Touchdowns	0	3
Punting
Punts	55	83
Yards	2,227	3,320
Average	40.5	40.0
Interception Returns
Returns	14	17
Yards	198	152
Touchdowns	1	1
Fumbles
Fumbles	18	23
Lost	8	10
Penalties
Penalties	94	83
Yards	828	721
Yards / Game	69.0	60.1
Time of Possession
Per Game	28:51	31:09
Third Downs
Attempts	180	185
Conversions	80	61
Conversion %	44.4%	33.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	15	11
Conversions	5	4
Conversion %	33.3%	36.4%
Red Zone
Trips	64	31
Scores (TD + FG)	46	25
Score %	71.9%	80.6%
Touchdowns	35	19
TD %	54.7%	61.3%
Field Goals
Attempts	22	17
Made	16	9
Pct	72.7%	52.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	54	37
Made	48	34
Pct	88.9%	91.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	5	3
Made	1	3

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →