Fourth Down Data
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TOL

Toledo

RocketsBalanced
Mid-American Conference4-2#41 (+3.18)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

68· COverall
Offense
76· BRating
85· BPer play
83· BConsistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
86· BPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.122
Defensive EPA/play
-0.086
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.9%
Def Success Rate
44.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.208
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.065
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.74
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#41
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#15
market 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
81th
Opp-adjusted defense
75th
Offensive EPA/play
86th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2024OA +0.018 / +0.063similar: TD drive rate, run defense, defensive success rate3802Arkansas State2017OA -0.029 / +0.016similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate3703South Alabama2023OA +0.039 / +0.075similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate3374USC2020OA +0.012 / +0.025similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3165Central Michigan2019OA -0.065 / -0.005similar: pass defense, run defense, turnover rate314

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10vs Bowling Green38-3W+2.5L59.5O
11@ Western Michigan38-41L-7.5W--
12@ Eastern Michigan45-28W----
13vs Ball State24-27L-9.5L63.5U
14@ Northern Illinois41-24W-9.0W56O
15vs Central Michigan24-23W-11.0L54U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-3
50.0%
O/U Record
2-3
40.0%
Straight Up
4-2
66.7%
Home ATS1-2
Away ATS2-1
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off74thRed Zone Off45th3rd Down Off95thPass Def72thRush Def77thRed Zone Def16th3rd Down Def99th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10983th-0.05980th
Red Zone-0.03445th+0.17516th
Third Down+0.46495th-0.47499th
No Garbage Time+0.11483th-0.09187th
First Half+0.09873th-0.11888th
Second Half+0.12085th+0.00256th
Early Downs+0.03666th-0.00759th
Passing Downs+0.20384th-0.05472th
Standard Downs+0.05974th-0.06277th
Goal to Go-0.07434th+0.3689th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.4%Rush 52.6%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
18.8
Yards/Game
494.0
Pts/Drive
2.68
3rd Down%
48.2%
3&Out%
13.9%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatToledoOpponents
Scoring
Points210146
Points / Game35.024.3
First Downs
Total161121
Rushing6138
Passing8464
Penalty1619
Rushing
Attempts243210
Yards1,009775
Yards / Carry4.23.7
Yards / Game168.2129.2
Touchdowns86
Passing
Attempts219196
Completions143110
Completion %65.3%56.1%
Yards1,9551,398
Yards / Attempt8.97.1
Touchdowns1812
Interceptions74
Passer Rating161.01132.16
Total Offense
Plays462406
Yards2,9642,173
Yards / Play6.45.4
Yards / Game494.0362.2
Punt Returns
Returns176
Yards6823
Average4.03.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2318
Yards349369
Average15.220.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts1934
Yards6921,368
Average36.440.2
Interception Returns
Returns47
Yards6913
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles127
Lost55
Penalties
Penalties5841
Yards451390
Yards / Game75.265.0
Time of Possession
Per Game33:3026:20
Third Downs
Attempts8584
Conversions4123
Conversion %48.2%27.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1313
Conversions67
Conversion %46.2%53.8%
Red Zone
Trips2820
Scores (TD + FG)2318
Score %82.1%90.0%
Touchdowns1713
TD %60.7%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts109
Made77
Pct70.0%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2416
Made2315
Pct95.8%93.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →