Fourth Down Data
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South Alabama

JaguarsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference7-6#22 (+5.91)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
83· BRating
70· BPer play
51· CConsistency
64· CBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
88· BPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
88· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.075
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.061
Defensive EPA/play
-0.100
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.161
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.039
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#31
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 54 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
68th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
89th
Offensive success rate
59th
Explosiveness
64th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Alabama2024OA +0.011 / +0.045similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense4172Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3833Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3784Florida2019OA +0.136 / +0.104similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3785Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate369

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Tulane17-37L+6.5L51.75O
2vs Southeastern Louisiana35-17W-21.0L58.5U
3@ Oklahoma State33-7W+7.0W48.5U
4vs Central Michigan30-34L-15.0L48.5O
5@ James Madison23-31L+3.0L49.5O
6@ UL Monroe55-7W-10.5W50.75O
8vs Southern Miss55-3W----
9vs Louisiana20-33L+5.5L45.5U
10@ Troy10-28L----
11vs Arkansas State21-14W-11.5L55U
12vs Marshall28-0W-10.5W50.5U
13@ Texas State44-52L-6.0L58O
17vs Eastern Michigan59-10W-16.3W46.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off93thRush Off31thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off73thPass Def82thRush Def81thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def89th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07474th-0.07185th
Red Zone+0.23690th-0.12876th
Third Down+0.29873th-0.01989th
No Garbage Time+0.05467th-0.09089th
First Half+0.05361th-0.16296th
Second Half+0.09782th+0.02243th
Early Downs-0.07730th-0.07370th
Passing Downs+0.29593th-0.03982th
Standard Downs-0.05331th-0.09181th
Goal to Go+0.14876th+0.23621th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.7%Rush 52.3%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
440.2
Pts/Drive
2.68
3rd Down%
43.4%
3&Out%
18.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points430273
Points / Game33.121.0
First Downs
Total294210
Rushing12480
Passing154105
Penalty1625
Rushing
Attempts469459
Yards2,2361,478
Yards / Carry4.83.2
Yards / Game172.0113.7
Touchdowns2811
Passing
Attempts428354
Completions291208
Completion %68.0%58.8%
Yards3,4862,594
Yards / Attempt8.17.3
Touchdowns2819
Interceptions1113
Passer Rating152.86130.68
Total Offense
Plays897813
Yards5,7224,072
Yards / Play6.45.0
Yards / Game440.2313.2
Punt Returns
Returns246
Yards2529
Average10.51.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1834
Yards312661
Average17.319.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4067
Yards1,5952,770
Average39.941.3
Interception Returns
Returns1311
Yards7037
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1914
Lost99
Penalties
Penalties8874
Yards765591
Yards / Game58.845.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3229:27
Third Downs
Attempts173176
Conversions7560
Conversion %43.4%34.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2721
Conversions178
Conversion %63.0%38.1%
Red Zone
Trips5031
Scores (TD + FG)4524
Score %90.0%77.4%
Touchdowns3915
TD %78.0%48.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2114
Made1412
Pct66.7%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4833
Made4631
Pct95.8%93.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts81
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →