Fourth Down Data
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FLA

Florida

GatorsBalanced
Southeastern Conference11-2#9 (+22.11)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

93· AOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
73· BPer play
69· CConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
83· BPer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
77· B3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.136
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.104
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.069
Defensive EPA/play
-0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
41.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.179
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.033
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#9
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#6
AP 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#13
model 4 spots higher
45 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
94th
Opp-adjusted defense
86th
Offensive EPA/play
74th
Defensive EPA/play
84th
Offensive success rate
73th
Explosiveness
79th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
86th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Alabama2023OA +0.039 / +0.075similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3762Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: run defense, rushing offense, takeaway rate3743Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: run defense, rushing offense, TD drive rate3634Clemson2020OA +0.058 / +0.078similar: havoc rate, pass defense, run defense3625Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate360

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Miami24-20W----
2vs UT Martin45-0W-44.5W59.5U
3@ Kentucky29-21W-10.0L46.5O
4vs Tennessee34-3W-12.5W49.5U
5vs Towson38-0W-37.0W62.5U
6vs Auburn24-13W+2.5W48.5U
7@ LSU28-42L+14.0P55.5O
8@ South Carolina38-27W-3.5W44.5O
10vs Georgia17-24L+6.5L48U
11vs Vanderbilt56-0W-27.5W49.5O
12@ Missouri23-6W-7.0W51U
14vs Florida State40-17W-17.5W55O
18@ Virginia36-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-3-1
72.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS7-2
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off62thRed Zone Off66th3rd Down Off78thPass Def92thRush Def76thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def84th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07172th-0.11890th
Red Zone+0.03966th-0.52799th
Third Down+0.17478th-0.13884th
No Garbage Time+0.06573th-0.09179th
First Half+0.02457th-0.11482th
Second Half+0.12188th-0.12391th
Early Downs+0.04469th-0.05372th
Passing Downs+0.17787th-0.19792th
Standard Downs+0.02162th-0.06876th
Goal to Go+0.04859th-0.54293th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.0%Rush 46.0%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
26.1%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
430.5
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
41.1%
3&Out%
14.1%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points432201
Points / Game33.215.5
First Downs
Total297213
Rushing8876
Passing176121
Penalty3316
Rushing
Attempts398419
Yards1,6871,336
Yards / Carry4.23.2
Yards / Game129.8102.8
Touchdowns219
Passing
Attempts467390
Completions317235
Completion %67.9%60.3%
Yards3,9102,627
Yards / Attempt8.46.7
Touchdowns3314
Interceptions1016
Passer Rating157.25120.48
Total Offense
Plays865809
Yards5,5973,963
Yards / Play6.54.9
Yards / Game430.5304.8
Punt Returns
Returns157
Yards689
Average4.51.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns825
Yards184502
Average23.020.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4272
Yards1,8473,049
Average44.042.3
Interception Returns
Returns1610
Yards16098
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1014
Lost87
Penalties
Penalties6798
Yards618783
Yards / Game47.560.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5829:44
Third Downs
Attempts158184
Conversions6567
Conversion %41.1%36.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2610
Conversions163
Conversion %61.5%30.0%
Red Zone
Trips5435
Scores (TD + FG)4723
Score %87.0%65.7%
Touchdowns3814
TD %70.4%40.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1920
Made1713
Pct89.5%65.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5222
Made5122
Pct98.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →