Fourth Down Data
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TEX

Texas

LonghornsBalanced
Southeastern Conference13-3#3 (+12.53)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
85· BRating
49· CPer play
59· CConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
89· BConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
99· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.096
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.002
Defensive EPA/play
-0.198
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
41.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.200
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.60

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.75
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#3
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#4
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#6
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#4
model 1 spots higher
69 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
57th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
49th
Defensive EPA/play
100th
Offensive success rate
65th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
76th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2017OA +0.122 / +0.234similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4312Toledo2025OA -0.058 / +0.113similar: rushing offense, pass defense, havoc rate4133South Carolina2024OA -0.002 / +0.053similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, run defense4124Alabama2024OA +0.011 / +0.045similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA3795Old Dominion2025OA +0.042 / +0.162similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, run defense379

2024 Schedule & Results

16 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Colorado State52-0W-32.0W60U
2@ Michigan31-12W-6.5W44.5U
3vs UTSA56-7W-35.5W56.5O
4vs UL Monroe51-3W-44.5W52.5O
5vs Mississippi State35-13W-38.0L61.5U
7@ Oklahoma34-3W-14.5W49.5U
8vs Georgia15-30L-3.5L56U
9@ Vanderbilt27-24W-18.5L53.5U
11vs Florida49-17W-21.5W48O
12@ Arkansas20-10W-13.5L57.5U
13vs Kentucky31-14W-20.5L47U
14@ Texas A&M17-7W-5.5W48.25U
15vs Georgia19-22L-3.0L50U
17vs Clemson38-24W-11.5W51.5O
19@ Arizona State39-31W+6.0L53.5U
20vs Ohio State14-28L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-8
50.0%
O/U Record
5-11
31.3%
Straight Up
13-3
81.3%
Home ATS5-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS8-7
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off75thRush Off25thRed Zone Off31th3rd Down Off59thPass Def98thRush Def96thRed Zone Def88th3rd Down Def100th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00246th-0.180100th
Red Zone-0.07831th-0.19888th
Third Down+0.14059th-0.405100th
No Garbage Time+0.00047th-0.204100th
First Half+0.07474th-0.267100th
Second Half-0.07616th-0.09387th
Early Downs-0.04534th-0.12890th
Passing Downs+0.10375th-0.22698th
Standard Downs-0.04925th-0.15596th
Goal to Go-0.00048th-0.39194th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.0%Rush 52.0%
Havoc/Game
16.4
Havoc Rate
24.5%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
437.5
Pts/Drive
2.60
3rd Down%
43.0%
3&Out%
12.7%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 16 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexasOpponents
Scoring
Points528245
Points / Game33.015.3
First Downs
Total354263
Rushing138104
Passing188135
Penalty2824
Rushing
Attempts586542
Yards2,5401,754
Yards / Carry4.33.2
Yards / Game158.8109.6
Touchdowns2615
Passing
Attempts541489
Completions357292
Completion %66.0%59.7%
Yards4,4602,781
Yards / Attempt8.25.7
Touchdowns409
Interceptions1422
Passer Rating154.46104.56
Total Offense
Plays1,1271,031
Yards7,0004,535
Yards / Play6.24.4
Yards / Game437.5283.4
Punt Returns
Returns3017
Yards315122
Average10.57.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1523
Yards294381
Average19.616.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5181
Yards2,0803,498
Average40.843.2
Interception Returns
Returns2214
Yards182130
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2524
Lost129
Penalties
Penalties10290
Yards829765
Yards / Game51.847.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5230:10
Third Downs
Attempts214226
Conversions9271
Conversion %43.0%31.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3337
Conversions1818
Conversion %54.5%48.6%
Red Zone
Trips6939
Scores (TD + FG)5527
Score %79.7%69.2%
Touchdowns4418
TD %63.8%46.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2525
Made1618
Pct64.0%72.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6623
Made6623
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →