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SMU
SMU
MustangsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference11-3#12 (+8.72)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
91· A-Overall
Offense
82· BRating
64· CPer play
65· CConsistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
94· APer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.018
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.063
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.146
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.187
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.134
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.76
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.60
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.73
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#12
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#28
model 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#69
model 57 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense69th
Opp-adjusted defense95th
Offensive EPA/play65th
Defensive EPA/play95th
Offensive success rate61th
Explosiveness84th
Defensive havoc90th
Points per drive85th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Pittsburgh2025OA -0.006 / +0.103similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3932Toledo2020OA +0.030 / +0.027similar: TD drive rate, run defense, defensive success rate3803Boise State2019OA +0.101 / +0.067similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3764Arkansas State2017OA -0.029 / +0.016similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3625Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA362
2024 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ Nevada | 29-24 | W | -27.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 1 | vs Houston Christian | 59-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs BYU | 15-18 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs TCU | 66-42 | W | +3.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Florida State | 42-16 | W | -6.5 | W | 48 | O |
| 6 | @ Louisville | 34-27 | W | +6.5 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Stanford | 40-10 | W | -14.8 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Duke | 28-27 | W | -12.0 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Pittsburgh | 48-25 | W | -7.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Boston College | 38-28 | W | -17.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 13 | @ Virginia | 33-7 | W | -9.5 | W | 58 | U |
| 14 | vs California | 38-6 | W | -13.5 | W | 57 | U |
| 15 | vs Clemson | 31-34 | L | -2.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 17 | @ Penn State | 10-38 | L | +8.5 | L | 54 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.036 | 61th | -0.108 | 87th |
| Red Zone | -0.044 | 40th | +0.136 | 20th |
| Third Down | +0.304 | 88th | +0.055 | 57th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.046 | 70th | -0.130 | 91th |
| First Half | +0.025 | 57th | -0.135 | 90th |
| Second Half | +0.050 | 62th | -0.081 | 82th |
| Early Downs | -0.023 | 45th | -0.105 | 83th |
| Passing Downs | +0.082 | 66th | -0.081 | 72th |
| Standard Downs | +0.011 | 51th | -0.126 | 90th |
| Goal to Go | -0.291 | 12th | +0.185 | 14th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.6%Rush 55.4%
Havoc/Game
16.4
Havoc Rate
23.1%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
429.5
Pts/Drive
2.76
3rd Down%
44.6%
3&Out%
16.2%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 14 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | SMU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 511 | 309 |
| Points / Game | 36.5 | 22.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 319 | 260 |
| Rushing | 133 | 85 |
| Passing | 159 | 140 |
| Penalty | 27 | 35 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 542 | 483 |
| Yards | 2,347 | 1,403 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| Yards / Game | 167.6 | 100.2 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 436 | 494 |
| Completions | 278 | 278 |
| Completion % | 63.8% | 56.3% |
| Yards | 3,666 | 3,161 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.4 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 150.08 | 119.58 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 978 | 977 |
| Yards | 6,013 | 4,564 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 429.5 | 326.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 15 |
| Yards | 237 | 165 |
| Average | 9.1 | 11.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 35 |
| Yards | 477 | 589 |
| Average | 20.7 | 16.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 45 | 71 |
| Yards | 1,947 | 2,961 |
| Average | 43.3 | 41.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 12 |
| Yards | 307 | 131 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 23 |
| Lost | 12 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 114 | 92 |
| Yards | 1,088 | 817 |
| Yards / Game | 77.7 | 58.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:28 | 31:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 184 | 206 |
| Conversions | 82 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 44.6% | 33.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 41 |
| Conversions | 10 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 52.6% | 41.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 60 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 33 |
| Score % | 83.3% | 76.7% |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 30 |
| TD % | 63.3% | 69.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 18 |
| Made | 24 | 11 |
| Pct | 72.7% | 61.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 55 | 35 |
| Made | 55 | 34 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 4 |
| Made | 4 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.