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BOIS
Boise State
BroncosBalancedPac-12 Conference12-2#29 (+10.29)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
78· BOverall
Offense
81· BRating
83· BPer play
86· BConsistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
64· CRating
87· BPer play
88· BConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.101
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.106
Defensive EPA/play
-0.121
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.8%
Def Success Rate
42.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.228
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.081
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.82
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.97
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.32
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#23
AP 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 35 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense84th
Opp-adjusted defense77th
Offensive EPA/play84th
Defensive EPA/play88th
Offensive success rate78th
Explosiveness97th
Defensive havoc85th
Points per drive89th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3922Utah2021OA +0.113 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3783SMU2024OA +0.018 / +0.063similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3764Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive EPA3705Utah2022OA +0.080 / +0.142similar: passing offense, turnover rate, takeaway rate362
2019 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Florida State | 36-31 | W | +3.5 | L | 47 | U |
| 2 | vs Marshall | 14-7 | W | -14.0 | L | 58 | U |
| 3 | vs Portland State | 45-10 | W | -32.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 4 | vs Air Force | 30-19 | W | -7.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 6 | @ UNLV | 38-13 | W | -24.0 | W | 57 | U |
| 7 | vs Hawai'i | 59-37 | W | -11.5 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 8 | @ BYU | 25-28 | L | -7.0 | L | 45 | O |
| 10 | @ San José State | 52-42 | W | -16.5 | L | 61 | O |
| 11 | vs Wyoming | 20-17 | W | -16.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 12 | vs New Mexico | 42-9 | W | -26.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Utah State | 56-21 | W | -4.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Colorado State | 31-24 | W | -14.0 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 15 | vs Hawai'i | 31-10 | W | -14.5 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 17 | @ Washington | 7-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS7-5
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.079 | 76th | -0.045 | 70th |
| Red Zone | +0.195 | 87th | +0.155 | 12th |
| Third Down | +0.279 | 90th | +0.116 | 30th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.114 | 87th | -0.118 | 87th |
| First Half | +0.071 | 70th | -0.096 | 78th |
| Second Half | +0.087 | 78th | +0.009 | 49th |
| Early Downs | +0.017 | 56th | -0.124 | 91th |
| Passing Downs | +0.201 | 89th | +0.097 | 27th |
| Standard Downs | +0.015 | 57th | -0.128 | 91th |
| Goal to Go | +0.457 | 96th | -0.281 | 81th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.7%Rush 53.3%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
21.9%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
17.6
Yards/Game
429.0
Pts/Drive
2.82
3rd Down%
47.7%
3&Out%
16.1%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 14 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Boise State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 486 | 306 |
| Points / Game | 34.7 | 21.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 318 | 258 |
| Rushing | 136 | 92 |
| Passing | 159 | 146 |
| Penalty | 23 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 529 | 455 |
| Yards | 2,342 | 1,578 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 167.3 | 112.7 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 464 | 474 |
| Completions | 287 | 271 |
| Completion % | 61.9% | 57.2% |
| Yards | 3,664 | 3,270 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 145.49 | 124.83 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 993 | 929 |
| Yards | 6,006 | 4,848 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 429.0 | 346.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 14 |
| Yards | 301 | 83 |
| Average | 12.0 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 38 | 29 |
| Yards | 826 | 602 |
| Average | 21.7 | 20.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 75 |
| Yards | 2,200 | 3,056 |
| Average | 39.3 | 40.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 11 |
| Yards | 87 | 125 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 16 |
| Lost | 8 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 76 | 88 |
| Yards | 695 | 737 |
| Yards / Game | 49.6 | 52.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:12 | 28:48 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 199 | 198 |
| Conversions | 95 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 47.7% | 38.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 29 |
| Conversions | 10 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 58.8% | 37.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 57 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 35 |
| Score % | 87.7% | 81.4% |
| Touchdowns | 39 | 26 |
| TD % | 68.4% | 60.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 15 |
| Made | 15 | 11 |
| Pct | 78.9% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 62 | 36 |
| Made | 61 | 33 |
| Pct | 98.4% | 91.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.