Fourth Down Data
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UTAH

Utah

UtesBalanced
Big 12 Conference10-4#10 (+8.77)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
93· ARating
92· A-Per play
96· AConsistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
86· BRating
73· BPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.113
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.134
Defensive EPA/play
-0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.1%
Def Success Rate
43.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.195
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.061
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.03

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.97
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.83
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.91
own return game
Return Defense
-2.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#42
model 32 higher
Recruiting Rank
#34
model 24 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
73th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
74th
Offensive success rate
97th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
92th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas State2023OA +0.110 / +0.053similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4232Buffalo2020OA +0.050 / +0.018similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, run defense3793Boise State2019OA +0.101 / +0.067similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3784Arizona2023OA +0.091 / +0.078similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3605Boise State2024OA +0.078 / +0.010similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate359

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Weber State40-17W----
2@ BYU17-26L-6.5L46.5U
3@ San Diego State31-33L+9.5W48O
4vs Washington State24-13W-15.0L53.5U
6@ USC42-26W+3.0W52.75O
7vs Arizona State35-21W+1.0W50.5O
8@ Oregon State34-42L-3.0L56.5O
9vs UCLA44-24W-6.5W60.5O
10@ Stanford52-7W----
11@ Arizona38-29W-24.3L54O
12vs Oregon38-7W-23.5L52.5U
13vs Colorado28-13W-2.5W57.5U
14vs Oregon38-10W----
18@ Ohio State45-48L+6.5W66O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off88thRush Off89thRed Zone Off89th3rd Down Off90thPass Def68thRush Def50thRed Zone Def88th3rd Down Def19th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11792th-0.03256th
Red Zone+0.15789th-0.21488th
Third Down+0.35190th+0.24219th
No Garbage Time+0.13394th-0.06372th
First Half+0.16492th-0.09278th
Second Half+0.06680th+0.02835th
Early Downs+0.07884th-0.10886th
Passing Downs+0.13088th-0.06468th
Standard Downs+0.11089th-0.01250th
Goal to Go-0.27016th+0.06438th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
23.3%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
17.3
Yards/Game
431.5
Pts/Drive
3.03
3rd Down%
48.5%
3&Out%
11.8%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Utah vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtahOpponents
Scoring
Points506316
Points / Game36.122.6
First Downs
Total341259
Rushing157103
Passing148136
Penalty3620
Rushing
Attempts545459
Yards3,0411,705
Yards / Carry5.63.7
Yards / Game217.2121.8
Touchdowns3711
Passing
Attempts401454
Completions254279
Completion %63.3%61.5%
Yards3,0003,112
Yards / Attempt7.56.9
Touchdowns2422
Interceptions810
Passer Rating141.95130.62
Total Offense
Plays946913
Yards6,0414,817
Yards / Play6.45.3
Yards / Game431.5344.1
Punt Returns
Returns3014
Yards454117
Average15.18.4
Touchdowns22
Kickoff Returns
Returns1745
Yards4131,062
Average24.323.6
Touchdowns13
Punting
Punts4159
Yards1,5912,749
Average38.846.6
Interception Returns
Returns108
Yards149143
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1911
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties67103
Yards632919
Yards / Game45.165.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4929:11
Third Downs
Attempts169196
Conversions8274
Conversion %48.5%37.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2432
Conversions1117
Conversion %45.8%53.1%
Red Zone
Trips7347
Scores (TD + FG)6137
Score %83.6%78.7%
Touchdowns5224
TD %71.2%51.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1826
Made1216
Pct66.7%61.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6535
Made6234
Pct95.4%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →