Fourth Down Data
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BUF

Buffalo

BullsRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference6-1#17 (+6.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
88· BRating
93· APer play
94· AConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
69· CPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
93· ARed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.050
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.203
Defensive EPA/play
-0.041
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.0%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.244
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.170
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.43
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.63
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#25
model 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#4
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
91th
Opp-adjusted defense
70th
Offensive EPA/play
94th
Defensive EPA/play
70th
Offensive success rate
92th
Explosiveness
77th
Defensive havoc
70th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah2021OA +0.113 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, run defense3792TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3653Oregon State2023OA +0.111 / +0.063similar: run defense, pass defense, offensive success rate3584Jacksonville State2024OA +0.056 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3385Louisiana Tech2026OA +0.085 / +0.038similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA338

2020 Schedule & Results

7 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10@ Northern Illinois49-30W-7.0W56.5U
11vs Miami (OH)42-10W-30.5L--
12@ Bowling Green42-17W----
13vs Kent State70-41W-7.5W67.5O
15vs Akron56-7W-13.0L69.5U
16vs Ball State28-38L-3.0W53.5U
17vs Marshall17-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-2
71.4%
O/U Record
3-3
50.0%
Straight Up
6-1
85.7%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS1-1
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off93thRed Zone Off94th3rd Down Off82thPass Def83thRush Def27thRed Zone Def32th3rd Down Def47th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.20295th+0.01557th
Red Zone+0.29594th+0.07532th
Third Down+0.27282th+0.08647th
No Garbage Time+0.19694th-0.06681th
First Half+0.20591th+0.14415th
Second Half+0.19896th-0.10081th
Early Downs+0.18698th+0.03635th
Passing Downs+0.27192th-0.09083th
Standard Downs+0.17093th+0.06827th
Goal to Go+0.29981th-0.01059th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.4%Rush 65.6%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.7
Yards/Game
478.4
Pts/Drive
3.29
3rd Down%
48.1%
3&Out%
14.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 7 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBuffaloOpponents
Scoring
Points304153
Points / Game43.421.9
First Downs
Total155139
Rushing8764
Passing5261
Penalty1614
Rushing
Attempts300281
Yards2,0121,102
Yards / Carry6.73.9
Yards / Game287.4157.4
Touchdowns3210
Passing
Attempts157202
Completions98111
Completion %62.4%55.0%
Yards1,3371,421
Yards / Attempt8.57.0
Touchdowns78
Interceptions46
Passer Rating143.57121.17
Total Offense
Plays457483
Yards3,3492,523
Yards / Play7.35.2
Yards / Game478.4360.4
Punt Returns
Returns82
Yards730
Average9.10.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1723
Yards312534
Average18.423.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2136
Yards8141,554
Average38.843.2
Interception Returns
Returns64
Yards930
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles39
Lost24
Penalties
Penalties4241
Yards354377
Yards / Game50.653.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4829:11
Third Downs
Attempts8198
Conversions3931
Conversion %48.1%31.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1316
Conversions79
Conversion %53.8%56.3%
Red Zone
Trips2926
Scores (TD + FG)2520
Score %86.2%76.9%
Touchdowns2415
TD %82.8%57.7%
Field Goals
Attempts412
Made17
Pct25.0%58.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4316
Made4316
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →