Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersBalanced
American Conference8-5#51 (+4.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

62· COverall
Offense
65· CRating
80· BPer play
56· CConsistency
91· A-Big plays
Defense
60· CRating
43· CPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
99· A+Red-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.096
Defensive EPA/play
+0.000
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
44.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.096
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.159
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.72

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.82
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.49
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#51
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#33
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
model 7 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
65th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
81th
Defensive EPA/play
44th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
92th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
80th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1App State2022OA +0.021 / +0.003similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, run defense3992Duke2022OA +0.068 / -0.022similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3943UTSA2025OA -0.014 / +0.000similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, pass defense3754NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3705UTSA2021OA +0.149 / +0.028similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate367

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Chattanooga45-10W-38.5L55P
2@ Georgia State38-16W-14.5W57.5U
3@ Troy28-7W-4.0W51U
4vs Arkansas32-31W+7.0W61O
5@ Florida Atlantic55-26W-14.0W62.5O
6vs Tulsa45-7W-21.0W54.5U
8@ UAB24-31L-7.5L58.5U
9vs South Florida34-31W+6.0W58.5O
10@ Rice38-14W-3.5L54O
11vs Tulane32-38L----
12@ East Carolina27-31L+2.5L54.5O
14vs Navy17-28L----
17@ NC State7-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-6-1
50.0%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off79thRed Zone Off100th3rd Down Off56thPass Def51thRush Def49thRed Zone Def37th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08981th-0.01450th
Red Zone+0.370100th+0.05237th
Third Down+0.10456th-0.00764th
No Garbage Time+0.08980th-0.00444th
First Half+0.12987th+0.10013th
Second Half+0.04673th-0.13891th
Early Downs+0.05779th-0.04561th
Passing Downs+0.10081th-0.03351th
Standard Downs+0.08379th-0.00549th
Goal to Go+0.53099th+0.17326th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
13.6
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
411.6
Pts/Drive
2.72
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
15.9%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMemphisOpponents
Scoring
Points422301
Points / Game32.523.2
First Downs
Total297247
Rushing14188
Passing131137
Penalty2522
Rushing
Attempts472460
Yards2,3821,703
Yards / Carry5.03.7
Yards / Game183.2131.0
Touchdowns3422
Passing
Attempts412392
Completions278238
Completion %67.5%60.7%
Yards2,9692,953
Yards / Attempt7.27.5
Touchdowns1716
Interceptions912
Passer Rating137.26131.34
Total Offense
Plays884852
Yards5,3514,656
Yards / Play6.15.5
Yards / Game411.6358.2
Punt Returns
Returns156
Yards12522
Average8.33.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1418
Yards288314
Average20.617.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4662
Yards1,9892,799
Average43.245.1
Interception Returns
Returns129
Yards113132
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1120
Lost37
Penalties
Penalties7284
Yards625674
Yards / Game48.151.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4228:14
Third Downs
Attempts168183
Conversions7074
Conversion %41.7%40.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2522
Conversions1411
Conversion %56.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4837
Scores (TD + FG)4529
Score %93.8%78.4%
Touchdowns3624
TD %75.0%64.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2015
Made159
Pct75.0%60.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4938
Made4938
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts51
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →