Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersBalanced
American Conference7-6#88 (-5.17)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
29· DRating
79· BPer play
77· BConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
52· CPer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.000
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.091
Defensive EPA/play
-0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
43.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.113
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.041
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.21
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#52
market 36 higher
Recruiting Rank
#71
recruiting 17 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
48th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
80th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
63th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
76th
Points per drive
83th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: pass defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA4022Mississippi State2026OA +0.028 / +0.032similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3893Memphis2025OA +0.037 / +0.005similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, pass defense3754Florida State2022OA +0.148 / +0.042similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3605SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA359

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas A&M24-42L+23.5W58.5O
2vs Texas State36-43L-3.5L75.5O
3vs Incarnate Word48-20W-37.5L67O
4@ Colorado State17-16W-4.5L58.5U
6@ Temple21-27L-6.5L58U
7vs Rice61-13W-9.5W48.5O
8@ North Texas17-55L+14.0L68.5O
10vs Tulane48-26W+14.0L67.5O
11@ South Florida23-55L----
12@ Charlotte28-7W-17.0W58.5U
13vs East Carolina58-24W-24.5W66.5O
14vs Army24-27L-6.5L51P
18vs Florida International57-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
9-3-1
75.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off43thRed Zone Off47th3rd Down Off46thPass Def43thRush Def41thRed Zone Def15th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05571th+0.01240th
Red Zone-0.01747th+0.16615th
Third Down+0.06646th+0.17721th
No Garbage Time+0.07778th+0.00541th
First Half+0.11883th-0.03658th
Second Half-0.02245th+0.05824th
Early Downs+0.01559th+0.02228th
Passing Downs+0.18087th+0.00043th
Standard Downs-0.00943th+0.01941th
Goal to Go-0.17821th+0.13635th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.2%Rush 49.8%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
418.8
Pts/Drive
2.79
3rd Down%
39.9%
3&Out%
14.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points462375
Points / Game35.528.8
First Downs
Total283248
Rushing10889
Passing144130
Penalty3129
Rushing
Attempts444458
Yards2,2251,945
Yards / Carry5.04.2
Yards / Game171.2149.6
Touchdowns2116
Passing
Attempts448394
Completions299236
Completion %66.7%59.9%
Yards3,2192,895
Yards / Attempt7.27.3
Touchdowns3426
Interceptions711
Passer Rating149.02137.81
Total Offense
Plays892852
Yards5,4444,840
Yards / Play6.15.7
Yards / Game418.8372.3
Punt Returns
Returns1922
Yards122282
Average6.412.8
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns1327
Yards218609
Average16.822.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5561
Yards2,5082,637
Average45.643.2
Interception Returns
Returns117
Yards154125
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1617
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties9584
Yards893783
Yards / Game68.760.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5228:08
Third Downs
Attempts173185
Conversions6964
Conversion %39.9%34.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2834
Conversions1315
Conversion %46.4%44.1%
Red Zone
Trips5740
Scores (TD + FG)5137
Score %89.5%92.5%
Touchdowns3626
TD %63.2%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2015
Made1714
Pct85.0%93.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5741
Made5741
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts17
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →