Fourth Down Data
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DUKE

Duke

Blue DevilsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-4#22 (+5.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
75· BRating
82· BPer play
53· CConsistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
47· CPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
9· FRed-zone D
82· B3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.068
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.098
Defensive EPA/play
-0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.113
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.029
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.70
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.64
own return game
Return Defense
+0.38
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#75
model 53 higher
Recruiting Rank
#60
model 38 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
83th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
77th
Defensive havoc
79th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1East Carolina2022OA +0.119 / -0.021similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, pass defense4312Memphis2025OA +0.037 / +0.005similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3943Ohio2022OA +0.047 / -0.102similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3934UTSA2021OA +0.149 / +0.028similar: run defense, pass defense, TD drive rate3755Stanford2017OA +0.093 / -0.043similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate368

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Temple30-0W----
2@ Northwestern31-23W+10.0W56.5U
3vs North Carolina A&T49-20W----
4@ Kansas27-35L+7.5L65.5U
5vs Virginia38-17W-3.0W52O
6@ Georgia Tech20-23L-3.5L53.5U
7vs North Carolina35-38L+7.0W66.5O
8@ Miami45-21W+9.0W58O
10@ Boston College38-31W----
11vs Virginia Tech24-7W-9.5W49.5U
12@ Pittsburgh26-28L+7.5W52.5O
13vs Wake Forest34-31W+3.5W66.5U
18vs UCF30-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS6-0
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off91thRush Off61thRed Zone Off64th3rd Down Off83thPass Def7thRush Def89thRed Zone Def9th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08582th-0.00844th
Red Zone+0.07664th+0.2299th
Third Down+0.29783th+0.03656th
No Garbage Time+0.09884th-0.01848th
First Half+0.14688th+0.01439th
Second Half+0.02463th-0.02853th
Early Downs+0.01964th-0.07473th
Passing Downs+0.21491th+0.2347th
Standard Downs+0.01761th-0.12989th
Goal to Go+0.03161th+0.11425th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.2%Rush 54.8%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+1.2
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
415.7
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
41.9%
3&Out%
18.6%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatDukeOpponents
Scoring
Points427287
Points / Game32.822.1
First Downs
Total282270
Rushing12899
Passing127153
Penalty2718
Rushing
Attempts484426
Yards2,3941,572
Yards / Carry4.93.7
Yards / Game184.2120.9
Touchdowns3110
Passing
Attempts400465
Completions255283
Completion %63.7%60.9%
Yards3,0103,345
Yards / Attempt7.57.2
Touchdowns2025
Interceptions610
Passer Rating140.46134.73
Total Offense
Plays884891
Yards5,4044,917
Yards / Play6.15.5
Yards / Game415.7378.2
Punt Returns
Returns1313
Yards25974
Average19.95.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3131
Yards645530
Average20.817.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4555
Yards1,9312,240
Average42.940.7
Interception Returns
Returns106
Yards9323
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1224
Lost416
Penalties
Penalties6765
Yards652645
Yards / Game50.249.6
Time of Possession
Per Game33:0726:53
Third Downs
Attempts172179
Conversions7277
Conversion %41.9%43.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2426
Conversions1411
Conversion %58.3%42.3%
Red Zone
Trips5641
Scores (TD + FG)4636
Score %82.1%87.8%
Touchdowns3527
TD %62.5%65.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2415
Made1712
Pct70.8%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5233
Made5233
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →