Fourth Down Data
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ECU

East Carolina

PiratesBalanced
American Conference8-5#48 (+2.67)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

65· COverall
Offense
78· BRating
90· A-Per play
66· CConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
37· DPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.119
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.137
Defensive EPA/play
+0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.121
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.035
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.59
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.55
own return game
Return Defense
-0.37
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#48
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#52
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 27 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
85th
Opp-adjusted defense
44th
Offensive EPA/play
91th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
56th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Duke2022OA +0.068 / -0.022similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, pass defense4312NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3933Florida Atlantic2017OA +0.102 / -0.065similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3914SMU2019OA +0.086 / -0.055similar: pass defense, passing offense, offensive EPA3875Ohio2022OA +0.047 / -0.102similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, turnover rate376

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs NC State20-21L+11.5W51.5U
2vs Old Dominion39-21W-13.0W50.5O
3vs Campbell49-10W----
4vs Navy20-23L-16.5L49U
5@ South Florida48-28W-9.0W57O
6@ Tulane9-24L+3.0L55.5U
7vs Memphis47-45W-5.0L58O
8vs UCF34-13W+3.0W63.5U
9@ BYU27-24W----
11@ Cincinnati25-27L----
12vs Houston3-42L-6.0L67U
13@ Temple49-46W-12.5L50O
18vs Coastal Carolina53-29W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off85thRush Off86thRed Zone Off54th3rd Down Off93thPass Def16thRush Def36thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11388th+0.04224th
Red Zone+0.02554th-0.15873th
Third Down+0.43193th+0.28016th
No Garbage Time+0.13690th+0.03130th
First Half+0.13987th+0.09218th
Second Half+0.08781th-0.00641th
Early Downs+0.04776th+0.03123th
Passing Downs+0.15285th+0.11016th
Standard Downs+0.09386th+0.00836th
Goal to Go-0.07144th-0.42293th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.4%Rush 46.6%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
461.1
Pts/Drive
2.75
3rd Down%
46.2%
3&Out%
15.5%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEast CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points423353
Points / Game32.527.2
First Downs
Total294275
Rushing10493
Passing163168
Penalty2714
Rushing
Attempts423425
Yards2,2181,462
Yards / Carry5.23.4
Yards / Game170.6112.5
Touchdowns2515
Passing
Attempts484437
Completions323289
Completion %66.7%66.1%
Yards3,7763,806
Yards / Attempt7.88.7
Touchdowns2827
Interceptions511
Passer Rating149.29154.65
Total Offense
Plays907862
Yards5,9945,268
Yards / Play6.66.1
Yards / Game461.1405.2
Punt Returns
Returns199
Yards13486
Average7.19.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3350
Yards7301,023
Average22.120.5
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4656
Yards1,7792,406
Average38.743.0
Interception Returns
Returns115
Yards15433
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1012
Lost28
Penalties
Penalties5676
Yards489691
Yards / Game37.653.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1228:30
Third Downs
Attempts182175
Conversions8474
Conversion %46.2%42.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2921
Conversions1310
Conversion %44.8%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips5645
Scores (TD + FG)4835
Score %85.7%77.8%
Touchdowns3625
TD %64.3%55.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2015
Made1314
Pct65.0%93.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5141
Made4641
Pct90.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts65
Made33
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →