Fourth Down Data
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STAN

Stanford

CardinalBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-5#28 (+11.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

79· BOverall
Offense
80· BRating
89· BPer play
30· DConsistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
29· DPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.093
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.043
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.114
Defensive EPA/play
+0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.061
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.38
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.80
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.18
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#28
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
AP 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#17
recruiting 11 spots higher
32 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Stanford ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
89th
Defensive EPA/play
29th
Offensive success rate
39th
Explosiveness
83th
Defensive havoc
49th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: run defense, turnover rate, defensive EPA3732Duke2022OA +0.068 / -0.022similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate3683East Carolina2022OA +0.119 / -0.021similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3454Florida2022OA +0.127 / -0.042similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3425Liberty2019OA +0.049 / -0.100similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate333

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Rice62-7W----
2@ USC24-42L+3.5L54.5O
3@ San Diego State17-20L-8.5L47.5U
4vs UCLA58-34W-6.5W59O
5vs Arizona State34-24W-17.0L60.5U
6@ Utah23-20W-3.0P52U
7vs Oregon49-7W-9.5W57.5U
9@ Oregon State15-14W-18.5L56.5U
10@ Washington State21-24L-1.5L55.5U
11vs Washington30-22W+7.0W50O
12vs California17-14W-14.0L57U
13vs Notre Dame38-20W+3.0W58.5U
14@ USC28-31L+3.5W58O
18@ TCU37-39L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off86thRed Zone Off74th3rd Down Off72thPass Def14thRush Def44thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def19th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12092th+0.04129th
Red Zone+0.10374th+0.12123th
Third Down+0.11672th+0.15519th
No Garbage Time+0.11489th+0.05128th
First Half+0.09683th+0.03235th
Second Half+0.14795th+0.05024th
Early Downs+0.03373th-0.00436th
Passing Downs+0.18890th+0.16414th
Standard Downs+0.07986th-0.01344th
Goal to Go+0.08968th+0.12930th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.1%Rush 56.9%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
388.6
Pts/Drive
2.68
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
24.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Stanford vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatStanfordOpponents
Scoring
Points453318
Points / Game32.422.7
First Downs
Total248293
Rushing110128
Passing111143
Penalty2722
Rushing
Attempts480516
Yards2,8332,366
Yards / Carry5.94.6
Yards / Game202.4169.0
Touchdowns3118
Passing
Attempts363433
Completions208274
Completion %57.3%63.3%
Yards2,6083,306
Yards / Attempt7.27.6
Touchdowns2320
Interceptions818
Passer Rating134.15134.34
Total Offense
Plays843949
Yards5,4415,672
Yards / Play6.56.0
Yards / Game388.6405.1
Punt Returns
Returns2019
Yards172187
Average8.69.8
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns4526
Yards1,130452
Average25.117.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5754
Yards2,5862,097
Average45.438.8
Interception Returns
Returns188
Yards19130
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1820
Lost410
Penalties
Penalties8193
Yards662866
Yards / Game47.361.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1629:44
Third Downs
Attempts176191
Conversions7583
Conversion %42.6%43.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1218
Conversions77
Conversion %58.3%38.9%
Red Zone
Trips5947
Scores (TD + FG)5341
Score %89.8%87.2%
Touchdowns3929
TD %66.1%61.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2621
Made2115
Pct80.8%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5436
Made5435
Pct100.0%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →