Fourth Down Data
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UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersBalanced
American Conference12-2#30 (+5.53)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

77· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
92· A-Per play
80· BConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
65· CPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.149
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.127
Defensive EPA/play
-0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.177
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.71
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.22
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#30
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#17
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
65th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
67th
Points per drive
90th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Missouri2018OA +0.102 / +0.102similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4702Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3943Missouri2023OA +0.124 / +0.067similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3864Ball State2020OA +0.028 / +0.019similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3835Duke2022OA +0.068 / -0.022similar: run defense, pass defense, TD drive rate375

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Illinois37-30W+5.5W49.25O
2vs Lamar54-0W-38.0W64.5U
3vs Middle Tennessee27-13W-16.0L38.5O
4@ Memphis31-28W+3.0W66.5U
5vs UNLV24-17W-21.0L56.5U
6@ Western Kentucky52-46W+3.5W70.5O
7vs Rice45-0W-18.5W53.5U
8@ Louisiana Tech45-16W-7.0W60O
10@ UTEP44-23W-11.0W52.5O
11vs Southern Miss27-17W-33.0L54.5U
12vs UAB34-31W-5.0L53.5O
13@ North Texas23-45L-10.5L59.5O
14vs Western Kentucky49-41W----
17@ San Diego State24-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
9-5
64.3%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off91thRed Zone Off62th3rd Down Off77thPass Def31thRush Def74thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def89th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11292th-0.03053th
Red Zone+0.03562th-0.17480th
Third Down+0.21277th-0.17989th
No Garbage Time+0.12593th-0.05366th
First Half+0.17794th+0.01043th
Second Half+0.04166th-0.07071th
Early Downs+0.09990th-0.03962th
Passing Downs+0.09580th+0.05631th
Standard Downs+0.12091th-0.07874th
Goal to Go-0.05648th-0.706100th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
437.6
Pts/Drive
2.90
3rd Down%
43.4%
3&Out%
17.1%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points516345
Points / Game36.924.6
First Downs
Total321279
Rushing135105
Passing154148
Penalty3226
Rushing
Attempts557489
Yards2,5651,606
Yards / Carry4.63.3
Yards / Game183.2114.7
Touchdowns2615
Passing
Attempts447435
Completions289257
Completion %64.7%59.1%
Yards3,5613,612
Yards / Attempt8.08.3
Touchdowns3127
Interceptions612
Passer Rating151.77143.79
Total Offense
Plays1,004924
Yards6,1265,218
Yards / Play6.15.6
Yards / Game437.6372.7
Punt Returns
Returns2814
Yards29468
Average10.54.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns943
Yards1981,004
Average22.023.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4768
Yards2,1262,987
Average45.243.9
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards200118
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1925
Lost714
Penalties
Penalties71112
Yards713906
Yards / Game50.964.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3530:26
Third Downs
Attempts198187
Conversions8670
Conversion %43.4%37.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2321
Conversions1311
Conversion %56.5%52.4%
Red Zone
Trips6345
Scores (TD + FG)5736
Score %90.5%80.0%
Touchdowns3925
TD %61.9%55.6%
Field Goals
Attempts3121
Made2514
Pct80.6%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6338
Made6337
Pct100.0%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts06
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →