Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#1 (+16.11)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

99· A+Overall
Offense
99· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
92· A-Consistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
95· ARating
63· CPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.147
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.531
Defensive EPA/play
-0.197
lower = better
Off Success Rate
59.7%
Def Success Rate
36.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
36.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
17.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.728
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.58
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 25 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
100th
Opp-adjusted defense
80th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
64th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1LSU2022OA +0.112 / +0.084similar: offensive success rate, run defense, takeaway rate3092Oregon2024OA +0.060 / +0.016similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense3043Memphis2019OA +0.169 / -0.025similar: rushing offense, passing offense, TD drive rate3014South Carolina2026OA +0.069 / +0.042similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate2995Notre Dame2026OA +0.038 / +0.037similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, turnover rate296

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Stanford45-6W-23.5W47.5O
2vs Florida A&M------
3@ Wake Forest------
4vs Central Michigan------
5@ Clemson------
7vs Florida State------
8vs Pittsburgh------
9@ North Carolina------
10@ Notre Dame------
11vs Duke------
12vs Virginia Tech------
13vs Boston College------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off55thRush Off98thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off88thPass Def88thRush Def36thRed Zone Def88th3rd Down Def69th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.36295th-0.20769th
Red Zone+0.57587th-0.77688th
Third Down+0.77888th-0.26269th
No Garbage Time+0.53199th-0.19764th
First Half+0.51199th-0.19762th
Second Half+0.17770th-0.21867th
Early Downs+0.32894th-0.00238th
Passing Downs+0.10555th-0.46188th
Standard Downs+0.45698th-0.01536th
Goal to Go+0.62277th-0.77694th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.2%Rush 47.8%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
12.3%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
549.0
Pts/Drive
5.00
3rd Down%
72.7%
3&Out%
14.3%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points456
Points / Game45.06.0
First Downs
Total2717
Rushing83
Passing1912
Penalty02
Rushing
Attempts3223
Yards12178
Yards / Carry3.83.4
Yards / Game121.078.0
Touchdowns10
Passing
Attempts3542
Completions3022
Completion %85.7%52.4%
Yards428221
Yards / Attempt12.25.3
Touchdowns50
Interceptions10
Passer Rating229.8696.58
Total Offense
Plays6765
Yards549299
Yards / Play8.24.6
Yards / Game549.0299.0
Punt Returns
Returns10
Yards-20
Average-2.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns23
Yards4554
Average22.518.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts27
Yards89311
Average44.544.4
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles10
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties59
Yards5070
Yards / Game50.070.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:2427:36
Third Downs
Attempts1115
Conversions85
Conversion %72.7%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts02
Conversions00
Conversion %—0.0%
Red Zone
Trips32
Scores (TD + FG)32
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns30
TD %100.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made12
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts60
Made60
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →